MLB Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Monday, August 18 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: Toronto Blue Jays · Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 34-29 home record gives them an edge in this interleague matchup analysis against a Toronto team that has been merely average on the road at 31-31. The Pirates’ recent slump has masked their stronger splits at home, while the Blue Jays’ last 10 games at 5.9 RPG suggest scoring opportunities will be present. With both lineups carrying power bats and recent totals trending high, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward Pittsburgh taking control while the scoreboard pushes past today’s modest total.
Game Time
Taking place at Monday, August 18 at 06:40 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Toronto Blue Jays: -103
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -127
Total: 7
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-215)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+183)
Latest Team Records
Toronto Blue Jays: 73-51 (Win %: 0.589)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 52-72 (Win %: 0.419)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.295 AVG, 16 HR, 81 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.298 AVG, 20 HR, 67 RBI
- George Springer: 0.29 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.242 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI
- Oneil Cruz: 0.207 AVG, 18 HR, 51 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.241 AVG, 11 HR, 41 RBI
Team Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto enters with a 73-51 record, but their neutral 3-2 mark across the last 5 games signals a team that has been steady without surging. The offense has carried the load, averaging 5.4 runs per game in that stretch, but inconsistency on the road at 31-31 dilutes their edge. Bo Bichette’s steady production keeps them competitive, yet their away splits show they are less reliable outside of their strong home environment.
Over their last 10 games, the Blue Jays have averaged nearly 6 runs per contest, but the road form again tempers expectations. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has provided consistent run support, giving them a dangerous middle of the order, but the question remains whether they can sustain that efficiency when traveling. George Springer adds balance, yet Toronto’s overall profile on the road leaves them vulnerable against a home-strong Pirates club.
- Batting Average: 0.27
- Total Runs Scored: 611
- Home Runs: 145
- OBP: 0.339
- SLG: 0.43
- OPS: 0.769
- ERA: 4.21
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 31-31 • Home Record: 42-21
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.9 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh sits at 52-72 overall, but their 34-29 home record highlights why they are the sharper side here. Despite a 1-4 mark in their last 5 games with just 2.4 runs per outing, their home consistency positions them for a rebound against a traveling Toronto squad. Bryan Reynolds has been a steady run producer, and his ability to drive in runs at home is a stabilizing factor.
Over the last 10 games at 3-7, the Pirates have struggled, but their 3.2 RPG output still shows flashes of offensive capability. Oneil Cruz’s power threat plays larger in this ballpark, while Andrew McCutchen’s situational hitting provides balance to the order. With Toronto carrying weaker road results, Pittsburgh Pirates’ home stability and lineup balance make them the more reliable side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 436
- Home Runs: 88
- OBP: 0.303
- SLG: 0.345
- OPS: 0.648
- ERA: 4.04
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 18-44 • Home Record: 34-29
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Pirates’ strong 34-29 home record outweighs their recent struggles, especially against a Blue Jays team that has been neutral on the road. With Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz anchoring the lineup and Andrew McCutchen providing depth, Pittsburgh Pirates’ offensive ceiling is higher at home. Toronto’s road inconsistency makes them less reliable, while Pittsburgh Pirates’ situational strength positions them as the sharper side to back with confidence.
Confidence sits with the Pittsburgh Pirates based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Pittsburgh Pirates are at 2.4 RPG and the Toronto Blue Jays at 5.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward a Over 7.0.
Bookmakers
Current odds sourced from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, Bovada, BetUS, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 18, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
