MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers (Wednesday, September 17 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +132 | -164 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (158) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Record | 78–71 | 85–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars +3 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers’ 46-30 home record sets a clear tone for this matchup analysis against a Cleveland team riding a 5-0 streak. Despite the Guardians’ recent surge, their season-long 0.225 batting average reflects limited offensive depth, while Detroit Tigers’ lineup has consistently generated higher run totals. This MLB prediction leans toward the Tigers’ ability to control pace at home, with recent combined scoring averaging just 7.2 runs per game, signaling value on the Under.
Game Time
Set for Wednesday, September 17 at 06:40 PM ET at spacious Comerica Park, deep alleys suppress the long ball.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +132
- Detroit Tigers: -164
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-185)
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+158)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 78-71 (Win %: 0.523)
Detroit Tigers: 85-65 (Win %: 0.567)
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians are missing Ben Lively (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Detroit Tigers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.281 AVG, 28 HR, 77 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.236 AVG, 26 HR, 67 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.273 AVG, 10 HR, 48 RBI
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.265 AVG, 34 HR, 108 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.237 AVG, 28 HR, 72 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.256 AVG, 25 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians enter at 78-71 with a recent 5-0 run that has added momentum, but their overall offensive profile remains limited. Jose Ramirez has been the most reliable run producer, yet the supporting cast has not consistently lifted run totals above league average. Cleveland Guardians’ 38-37 road record speaks to that their strength fades away from home, making their recent streak less convincing in this setting.
Kyle Manzardo’s power has provided key sparks, but the Guardians’ offense still averages just 4.0 RPG over the last 10 games, a modest output when compared to stronger lineups. Steven Kwan adds contact reliability, though the team’s overall on-base and slugging numbers remain pedestrian. Against a home team with superior situational splits, Cleveland Guardians’ path to sustained scoring is limited.
- Batting Average: 0.225
- Total Runs Scored: 580
- Home Runs: 154
- OBP: 0.296
- SLG: 0.37
- OPS: 0.666
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 38-37 • Home Record: 41-34
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (4.0 RPG)
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ 85-65 mark is anchored by a commanding 46-30 home record, showing they consistently turn Comerica Park into a winning environment. Riley Greene has driven in over 100 runs, giving Detroit a reliable middle-of-the-order presence. Despite a 1-4 stretch in the last five games, the Tigers’ season-long production profile remains far stronger than Cleveland Guardians’.
Spencer Torkelson’s power adds balance to the lineup, while Kerry Carpenter provides depth that forces opposing pitchers to work through multiple threats. The Tigers averaged 5.4 RPG across their last 10 games, signaling that their offense is more capable of breaking out than Cleveland Guardians’. With a home-field edge and more balanced run production, Detroit projects as the more trustworthy side.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 729
- Home Runs: 187
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.42
- OPS: 0.738
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 39-36 • Home Record: 46-30
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 16, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
- July 06, 2025: DET 7 @ CLE 2
- July 05, 2025: DET 1 @ CLE 0
- July 04, 2025: DET 2 @ CLE 1
- May 25, 2025: CLE 0 @ DET 5
- May 24, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
- May 23, 2025: CLE 3 @ DET 1
- May 22, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 0
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 5.9 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Detroit Tigers’ 46-30 home record, combined with a deeper lineup anchored by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, makes them the superior side. Their ability to generate higher run totals across the season and proven success at Comerica Park positions them to outlast Cleveland despite the Guardians’ recent streak.
Data supports the Detroit Tigers as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Detroit Tigers have produced 3.2 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians 4.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How does Parlamaz make Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers MLB predictions?
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