MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers (Tuesday, September 16 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +127 | -149 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Record | 78–71 | 85–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Detroit Tigers
Detroit enters this matchup analysis with an 85-65 record and a steady 46-29 mark at home, giving them a firm statistical edge against Cleveland. The Guardians have gone 9-1 in their last 10, but their 3.2 runs per game over the past five highlights scoring inconsistency that does not travel well. With the Tigers holding a 4–3 head-to-head advantage in the last seven meetings, this MLB prediction leans strongly toward the home side controlling tempo in a lower-scoring contest.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Tuesday, September 16 at 06:40 PM ET at spacious Comerica Park, deep alleys suppress the long ball.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +127
- Detroit Tigers: -149
Total: 8
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-170)
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+145)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 78-71 (Win %: 0.523)
Detroit Tigers: 85-65 (Win %: 0.567)
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians are missing Ben Lively (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Detroit Tigers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.281 AVG, 28 HR, 77 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.236 AVG, 26 HR, 67 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.273 AVG, 10 HR, 48 RBI
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.265 AVG, 34 HR, 108 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.237 AVG, 28 HR, 72 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.256 AVG, 25 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have surged with a 9-1 record over their last 10 games, but their 3.2 runs per game in the last five exposes a lack of offensive rhythm. On the road, a 37-37 split makes clear that they have not consistently converted momentum into away wins. Jose Ramirez remains a central contributor, yet the lineup’s uneven scoring keeps them vulnerable against sharper home teams.
Kyle Manzardo adds power but the Guardians’ collective production has not matched the top-tier teams they face. Steven Kwan provides contact but limited run creation, which places pressure on the rest of the order to overperform. Even with their recent streak, Cleveland Guardians’ neutral road form and modest scoring trend suggest their ceiling is capped against a more balanced opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.225
- Total Runs Scored: 580
- Home Runs: 154
- OBP: 0.296
- SLG: 0.37
- OPS: 0.666
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 41-34
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (4.0 RPG)
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ 46-29 home record provides a decisive edge, especially with their ability to average 5.5 runs across the last 10 games. Riley Greene’s production has anchored their offense, giving them a reliable presence in middle-order scoring situations. Even at 2-3 in their last five, their stronger cumulative run output signals better balance than Cleveland Guardians’ recent narrow margins.
Spencer Torkelson’s power and Kerry Carpenter’s contributions add depth that complements Greene, keeping Detroit Tigers’ lineup multidimensional. Their even 5-5 stretch in the last 10 reflects stability rather than volatility, which translates well at a pitcher-friendly park where consistent contact matters more than streaky outputs. With their season-long 729 runs and home-field advantage, Detroit enters with confidence and statistical superiority.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 729
- Home Runs: 187
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.42
- OPS: 0.738
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 39-36 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Detroit Tigers lead 4–3 (Last 7 games)
- July 06, 2025: DET 7 @ CLE 2
- July 05, 2025: DET 1 @ CLE 0
- July 04, 2025: DET 2 @ CLE 1
- May 25, 2025: CLE 0 @ DET 5
- May 24, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
- May 23, 2025: CLE 3 @ DET 1
- May 22, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 0
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 5.5 total runs, with 1 game that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Detroit Tigers’ superior 46-29 home record, combined with a deeper run-producing lineup led by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, positions them as the sharper side. With a head-to-head edge and stronger season-long scoring profile, the Tigers are poised to control this matchup from start to finish.
Markets point to the Detroit Tigers as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Detroit Tigers have produced 4.4 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians 3.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
