MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox (Wednesday, September 3 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | -145 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (135) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Record | 68–68 | 77–62 |
| Lines: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Boston Red Sox
Boston enters this matchup analysis with momentum, having averaged 5.4 runs per game across the last five contests, while Cleveland has managed 4.4 in the same stretch. The Guardians are stuck at a .500 record overall, while the Red Sox sit at 77-62 and continue to build separation in the standings. With Boston’s home form proving decisive and Cleveland Guardians’ road record under water, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Red Sox taking command in a high-scoring environment.
Game Time
Slated for Wednesday, September 3 at 06:45 PM ET inside historic Fenway Park, where the Monster turns liners into doubles.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +120
- Boston Red Sox: -145
Total: 9
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-160)
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+135)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 68-68 (Win %: 0.5)
Boston Red Sox: 77-62 (Win %: 0.554)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.28 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.233 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.274 AVG, 10 HR, 43 RBI
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.26 AVG, 23 HR, 86 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.26 AVG, 14 HR, 76 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians’ overall record of 68-68 reflects a team unable to sustain momentum, and their 2-3 mark over the last five highlights inconsistency. Averaging 4.4 runs per game in that span shows some scoring ability, but the dip to 2.9 across the last ten highlights a lack of rhythm. Jose Ramirez continues to be the most reliable offensive piece, yet his production has not been enough to mask the team’s broader scoring volatility.
The Guardians’ 33-36 road record further weakens their outlook, especially against a Boston team that thrives at Fenway. Kyle Manzardo has added some power depth, but the lineup’s inability to string together consistent run support remains a concern. With Steven Kwan’s contact skills not translating into sustained rallies, Cleveland enters this series at a clear disadvantage.
- Batting Average: 0.223
- Total Runs Scored: 523
- Home Runs: 138
- OBP: 0.294
- SLG: 0.366
- OPS: 0.66
- ERA: 3.94
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 33-36 • Home Record: 35-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.9 RPG)
Boston Red Sox
Boston’s 77-62 record and 44-27 dominance at home speak to a team that capitalizes on venue advantage. Their 3-2 mark over the last five games with 5.4 runs per outing shows steady offensive execution. Trevor Story has been a central force in run production, giving the lineup a reliable anchor in key situations.
The Red Sox’s 7-3 run across their last ten games, averaging 4.4 runs, confirms their consistency against both strong and middling opponents. Wilyer Abreu’s balanced power and Jarren Duran’s ability to extend innings with timely hits keep pressure on opposing pitchers. This combination of depth and home-field confidence makes Boston the superior side entering this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 684
- Home Runs: 167
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.75
- ERA: 3.69
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 34-35 • Home Record: 44-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- September 02, 2025: CLE 7 @ BOS 11
- September 01, 2025: CLE 4 @ BOS 6
- April 27, 2025: BOS 13 @ CLE 3
- April 26, 2025: BOS 7 @ CLE 3
- April 26, 2025: BOS 4 @ CLE 5
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s superior 44-27 home record, combined with their 7-3 surge in the last ten games, highlights their reliability at Fenway against a Cleveland team struggling on the road. With consistent production from Trevor Story and support from Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, the Red Sox are positioned to control the matchup and extend their head-to-head dominance.
Data supports the Boston Red Sox as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Boston Red Sox at 5.4 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians at 4.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 03, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
