MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays (Friday, September 5 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +117 | -143 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-182) | -1.5 (155) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Record | 69–69 | 70–69 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay enters this matchup analysis on a five-game winning streak, averaging 7.2 runs per contest during that run, while Cleveland has stumbled with just one win in its last five. That contrast in recent form sets the tone for an MLB prediction where offensive rhythm and momentum point strongly toward the home side. With both clubs hovering around .500 overall, the Rays’ surge in scoring output provides the sharper betting angle, especially against a Guardians lineup that has struggled to consistently support its pitching staff.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Friday, September 5 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +117
- Tampa Bay Rays: -143
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-182)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+155)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 69-69 (Win %: 0.5)
Tampa Bay Rays: 70-69 (Win %: 0.504)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.278 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.231 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.274 AVG, 10 HR, 44 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.263 AVG, 40 HR, 102 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.294 AVG, 22 HR, 76 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.265 AVG, 28 HR, 74 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians’ 1-4 record over their last five games underlines a slide, even with 4.6 runs per game across that stretch. Road form has been middling all season, and the recent inconsistency away from home has limited their ability to capitalize on strong individual performances. Jose Ramirez provides proven production, but without consistent support, the Guardians’ offense has lacked the sustained firepower needed to overwhelm opponents.
Across the last 10 games, a 5-5 split with 3.9 runs per game reflects an offense that has not been able to string together impactful stretches. Kyle Manzardo’s power presence has not been enough to mask the broader inconsistency, and Steven Kwan’s contact game has not translated into significant scoring surges. Against a team in form like Tampa Bay, Cleveland Guardians’ away record and erratic scoring trend suggest a difficult path to pulling off an upset.
- Batting Average: 0.224
- Total Runs Scored: 538
- Home Runs: 143
- OBP: 0.294
- SLG: 0.369
- OPS: 0.663
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-37 • Home Record: 35-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.9 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ 5-0 mark in their last five games with 7.2 runs per game highlights an offense in peak form. Playing at home, where they have a winning record, amplifies that strength and gives them a clear edge over a visiting Guardians team struggling for rhythm. Junior Caminero’s ability to drive in runs has been a central factor in this surge, and his production has elevated the Rays’ lineup depth.
Over the last 10 games, Tampa Bay has gone 8-2 with 5.6 runs per game, confirming their consistency across a larger sample. Yandy Diaz has been a steady on-base threat, while Brandon Lowe adds balance with impactful power numbers, giving the Rays multiple avenues to generate offense. With their lineup clicking and their home form stable, Tampa Bay projects as the more reliable side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 636
- Home Runs: 157
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.719
- ERA: 3.89
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 33-36 • Home Record: 38-33
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 2–2 (Last 4 games)
- September 04, 2025: CLE 2 @ TB 4
- August 27, 2025: TB 3 @ CLE 4
- August 26, 2025: TB 0 @ CLE 3
- August 25, 2025: TB 9 @ CLE 0
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Rays’ combination of a five-game winning streak, dominant 7.2 RPG output in that span, and proven home strength makes them the superior betting side. With Caminero, Diaz, and Lowe all producing at high levels and the Guardians struggling to find consistency on the road, Tampa Bay holds the clear performance edge.
Form and matchup edges favor the Tampa Bay Rays — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 7.2 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians at 4.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 11.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, Bovada, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
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