MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays (Thursday, September 4 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -149 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 7.2 |
| Record | 68–69 | 69–69 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays enter this matchup analysis riding a perfect 5-0 stretch with an explosive 7.2 runs per game, while the Cleveland Guardians have been splitting results at 2-3 in their last five. That clear divergence in rhythm sets the tone for an MLB prediction that leans heavily toward Tampa Bay Rays’ offense to dictate pace. With both teams averaging over 8 total runs across their last 10, this contest profiles as one where the Rays’ firepower creates separation and the scoreboard trends toward the Over.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Thursday, September 4 at 07:35 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +125
- Tampa Bay Rays: -149
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-170)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+145)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 68-69 (Win %: 0.496)
Tampa Bay Rays: 69-69 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.28 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.233 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.271 AVG, 10 HR, 43 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.262 AVG, 40 HR, 100 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.287 AVG, 22 HR, 76 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.265 AVG, 28 HR, 72 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians sit just under .500 and their last 5 games at 2-3 (5.0 RPG) capture a team struggling for rhythm. On the road, a 34-36 record reflects inconsistency, and their offense has lacked the sustained punch to secure back-to-back results. Jose Ramirez remains the centerpiece, but without consistent support, Cleveland has struggled to turn individual production into series wins.
The last 10 games at 5-5 (3.7 RPG) highlight a flat trendline that fails to build momentum. Kyle Manzardo’s power has not consistently translated into wins, while Steven Kwan’s contact approach has not been enough to offset broader scoring droughts. Against a surging opponent, Cleveland Guardians’ away form and uneven run production cast doubt on their ability to match pace.
- Batting Average: 0.223
- Total Runs Scored: 530
- Home Runs: 142
- OBP: 0.294
- SLG: 0.368
- OPS: 0.662
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-36 • Home Record: 35-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.7 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 (7.2 RPG), showcasing a lineup firing on all cylinders and a home record of 37-33 that reinforces confidence in this venue. Junior Caminero’s power production has been the difference-maker, setting the tone for an offense that consistently pressures opposing pitching. That surge in scoring volume makes Tampa Bay a reliable moneyline side.
Over the last 10, Tampa Bay sits at 8-2 (5.9 RPG), a stretch that confirms sustained form rather than a short-term spike. Yandy Diaz’s steady bat and Brandon Lowe’s ability to drive in runs have fueled balanced contributions across the order. With momentum, home-field edge, and offensive depth, the Rays’ profile is clearly superior in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 627
- Home Runs: 157
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.716
- ERA: 3.89
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 33-36 • Home Record: 37-33
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Cleveland Guardians lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- August 27, 2025: TB 3 @ CLE 4
- August 26, 2025: TB 0 @ CLE 3
- August 25, 2025: TB 9 @ CLE 0
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Rays’ 5-0 surge with 7.2 RPG and an 8-2 mark over their last 10 underline a team in complete control, while the Guardians’ 2-3 recent run and sub-.500 road record highlight their vulnerabilities. With Junior Caminero anchoring a lineup that thrives at home and consistent contributions from Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, the Tampa Bay side carries the superior form and confidence to secure this matchup.
Confidence sits with the Tampa Bay Rays based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Tampa Bay Rays have produced 7.2 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians 5.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 12.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, BetUS, FanDuel, Caesars, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetRivers, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 04, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
