MLB Prediction: San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (Monday, August 18 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
SF @ SD
SF +120
SD -145
O/U 8.0
| Market / Trend | SF | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | -145 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (+152) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Record | 59–64 | 69–54 |
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Updated Aug 17, 2025 11:21 PM ET Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: San Francisco Giants · San Diego Padres
The Padres have dropped 3 of their last 5 while averaging 4.4 runs per game, and the Giants have struggled with just 3.2 RPG across the same stretch, creating a tight scoring profile that fits this MLB prediction. San Francisco Giants’ offense has been muted recently, but their pitching staff’s 3.72 ERA keeps them competitive in lower-scoring environments. San Diego Padres’ home record looks strong, yet their recent inconsistency opens the door for a disciplined Giants side to steal value in a matchup that projects below the market’s total.
Game Time
Taking place at Monday, August 18 at 09:40 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Francisco Giants: +120
- San Diego Padres: -145
Total: 8
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-184)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+152)
Latest Team Records
San Francisco Giants: 59-64 (Win %: 0.48)
San Diego Padres: 69-54 (Win %: 0.561)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.255 AVG, 23 HR, 81 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.265 AVG, 14 HR, 52 RBI
- Wilmer Flores: 0.247 AVG, 12 HR, 61 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.294 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.295 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.267 AVG, 17 HR, 49 RBI
Team Analysis
San Francisco Giants
The Giants enter with a 59-64 record and a recent 1-4 mark over their last 5 games, averaging only 3.2 RPG. That slump highlights offensive inconsistency, but their pitching remains steady with a 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, giving them the ability to keep games close. On the road, their 30-31 record shows they can compete away from home, and timely production from Rafael Devers offers the lineup a path to break through.
Across their last 10, the Giants are 3-7 with just 2.8 RPG, underscoring a scoring dip that forces them to lean on run prevention. Heliot Ramos and Wilmer Flores add balance, and their ability to generate situational hits becomes vital in a low-scoring environment. With a disciplined approach and pitching depth, San Francisco is positioned to grind out value in a matchup where run suppression is the key factor.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 498
- Home Runs: 114
- OBP: 0.309
- SLG: 0.373
- OPS: 0.681
- ERA: 3.72
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 30-31 • Home Record: 30-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (2.8 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres hold a 69-54 record, but their last 5 games show a 2-3 mark while averaging 4.4 RPG, reflecting uneven momentum. Manny Machado has been their most consistent threat, yet the offense has not translated its home dominance into recent results. Despite a strong 38-20 home record, their recent dip suggests that power alone won’t guarantee control against disciplined pitching.
Over their last 10, San Diego is 6-4 with 4.2 RPG, a solid but not overwhelming pace. Ramon Laureano and Fernando Tatis Jr. provide depth, though inconsistency in run support has limited their ceiling. Facing a Giants team that thrives in low-scoring contests, San Diego Padres’ recent form leaves them vulnerable to being contained, especially in a venue that suppresses offense.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 511
- Home Runs: 104
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.382
- OPS: 0.703
- ERA: 3.56
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 31-35 • Home Record: 38-20
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- August 13, 2025: SD 11 @ SF 1
- August 12, 2025: SD 5 @ SF 1
- August 11, 2025: SD 4 @ SF 1
- June 05, 2025: SD 2 @ SF 3
- June 04, 2025: SD 5 @ SF 6
Over/Under Trends
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 7.2 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 7.7 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Giants’ road resilience, paired with San Diego Padres’ recent inconsistency at the plate, makes San Francisco the sharper side. Even with offensive struggles, their pitching profile aligns perfectly with a low-scoring spot where one timely swing from Rafael Devers or Wilmer Flores can tip the balance. San Francisco Giants’ ability to contain pace and control variance positions them as the team more likely to deliver in this matchup.
Value-side alert: the San Francisco Giants at +120 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the San Diego Padres have produced 4.4 RPG and the San Francisco Giants 3.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That leans to a Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetRivers, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 18, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
