Introduction

More MLB picks: San Francisco Giants · Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants enter this matchup analysis after managing only 1-4 in their last five games, averaging 4.0 runs per contest, while the Dodgers have been stronger at 3-2 with 7.8 runs per game. Despite recent struggles, San Francisco Giants’ lineup still carries power threats that can swing a game quickly, and Los Angeles has been allowing consistent run production against opponents. With both teams combining for heavy scoring profiles across the last 10 games, this MLB prediction leans toward a high-output contest where the Giants seize value as the sharper side.

Game Time

Opening pitch at Thursday, September 18 at 10:10 PM ET inside Dodger Stadium, totals often track with starting pitching.

Odds & Spread Line

• San Francisco Giants: +144
• Los Angeles Dodgers: -161

Total: 7.5

• Run Line — San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-156)
• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+133)

Latest Team Records

San Francisco Giants: 76-76 (Win %: 0.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 84-67 (Win %: 0.556)

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants are missing Landen Roupp (Knee), listed as 15-Day-IL; Dominic Smith (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL; Carson Whisenhunt (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

San Francisco Giants

• Rafael Devers: 0.254 AVG, 31 HR, 103 RBI
• Willy Adames: 0.227 AVG, 28 HR, 82 RBI
• Heliot Ramos: 0.259 AVG, 17 HR, 61 RBI

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.282 AVG, 50 HR, 94 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.294 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.277 AVG, 25 HR, 81 RBI

Team Analysis

San Francisco Giants

The Giants’ 1-4 mark over their last five games highlights inconsistency, but their 4.7 RPG average across the last 10 shows the offense still produces runs when timely hits arrive. Rafael Devers provides a proven middle-order anchor capable of driving in runs, while Willy Adames adds another layer of power that can pressure Dodger pitching. On the road, their nearly even record speaks to resilience in hostile environments, a factor that makes them a live underdog in this matchup.

Heliot Ramos has emerged as a complementary bat, giving San Francisco added depth behind its primary run producers. Even during their recent slump, the Giants’ ability to generate four runs per game indicates they remain competitive, and their road form suggests they can capitalize on scoring opportunities in Los Angeles. The balance of power hitting and situational offense positions them as the sharper side despite recent losses.

• Batting Average: 0.236
• Total Runs Scored: 662
• Home Runs: 162
• OBP: 0.311
• SLG: 0.387
• OPS: 0.698
• ERA: 3.84
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 38-39 • Home Record: 38-37
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers’ 3-2 record in their last five games has been powered by 7.8 RPG, showing the lineup remains potent at home. Shohei Ohtani’s elite power production keeps pressure on opposing pitchers, while Freddie Freeman adds consistent contact to extend rallies. However, their success has been tied to scoring surges rather than steady balance, which opens the door for a disciplined Giants attack to steal momentum.

Andy Pages continues to add meaningful production, but the Dodgers’ recent run totals also reflect a reliance on heavy output in wins, leaving them vulnerable if their bats cool. Their 49-28 home record is strong, yet the Giants’ ability to score consistently even in losses creates betting value on the visitor. With Los Angeles leaning heavily on offensive bursts, the matchup actually favors San Francisco Giants’ steadier offensive ceiling when viewed through a betting lens.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 778
• Home Runs: 225
• OBP: 0.33
• SLG: 0.44
• OPS: 0.77
• ERA: 4.05
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 36-39 • Home Record: 49-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (7.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Los Angeles Dodgers lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)

• September 14, 2025: LAD 10 @ SF 2
• September 13, 2025: LAD 13 @ SF 7
• September 12, 2025: LAD 1 @ SF 5
• July 13, 2025: LAD 5 @ SF 2
• July 12, 2025: LAD 2 @ SF 1
• July 11, 2025: LAD 7 @ SF 8
• June 15, 2025: SF 4 @ LAD 5
• June 14, 2025: SF 5 @ LAD 11

Over/Under Trends

San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Giants’ ability to generate steady run support despite a losing stretch, combined with their road resilience and proven power from Devers and Adames, makes them the sharper moneyline side. Los Angeles has relied on explosive scoring bursts at home, but San Francisco Giants’ balanced lineup and consistent road scoring profile create the stronger betting edge for this contest.

We rate the San Francisco Giants at +144 as the right side at current form.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Los Angeles Dodgers are at 7.8 RPG and the San Francisco Giants at 4.0 — a useful baseline against the total.

With both clubs averaging 11.8 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Over 7.5 outcome.

Bookmakers

These lines come from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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