MLB Prediction: San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Wednesday, September 17 at 03:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SF | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +103 | -114 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (155) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.0 | 6.6 |
| Record | 75–75 | 76–75 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Francisco Giants · Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has surged with 6.6 runs per game across their last five contests, a decisive factor in this MLB prediction against a San Francisco team stuck at just 1–4 over the same stretch. The Giants’ inconsistency away from home contrasts sharply with the Diamondbacks’ balanced home record and recent scoring pace. With both lineups combining for over 10 runs per game lately, the setup favors Arizona Diamondbacks’ consistency and a higher-scoring outcome that aligns well with the Over.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Wednesday, September 17 at 03:40 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Francisco Giants: +103
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -114
Total: 9
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+155)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-190)
Latest Team Records
San Francisco Giants: 75-75 (Win %: 0.5)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 76-75 (Win %: 0.503)
Injury Report
San Francisco Giants are missing Dominic Smith (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL; Carson Whisenhunt (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Andrew Saalfrank (Shoulder), listed as Day-To-Day; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.255 AVG, 31 HR, 102 RBI
- Willy Adames: 0.23 AVG, 28 HR, 82 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.261 AVG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.29 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.255 AVG, 30 HR, 76 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.277 AVG, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Team Analysis
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 1–4 in their last five games, averaging 4.0 runs per contest, which highlights their inability to string together wins when needed most. Rafael Devers has been the primary run producer, but his efforts have not been enough to cover for the team’s lack of consistency at the plate. Their 37–39 road record reinforces the concern that this group struggles to maintain rhythm away from home.
Over the last 10 games, the Giants are 3–7 while putting up 4.4 runs per game, a profile that signals inconsistency rather than momentum. Willy Adames has offered occasional power, yet the lineup around him has failed to sustain pressure against stronger rotations. With Heliot Ramos also not delivering consistent impact, San Francisco Giants’ attack looks vulnerable against an Arizona side that is trending upward at home.
- Batting Average: 0.237
- Total Runs Scored: 652
- Home Runs: 161
- OBP: 0.312
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.701
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-39 • Home Record: 38-37
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.4 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are surging with a 4–1 record in their last five games, fueled by 6.6 runs per outing that showcase a lineup firing on all cylinders. Geraldo Perdomo has been a steady force in run production, giving this offense a reliable anchor in key spots. Their 40–34 home record highlights the confidence this team carries when playing at Chase Field.
Over their last 10 games, Arizona sits at 6–4 with 5.5 runs per game, proving their scoring depth is not a short-term spike. Corbin Carroll’s power and Ketel Marte’s balance have added layers to an attack that consistently pressures opposing pitching staffs. With that combination of recent form and home-field scoring reliability, the Diamondbacks present a stronger betting profile than their opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 204
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.435
- OPS: 0.759
- ERA: 4.45
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 40-34
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 16, 2025: SF 5 @ ARI 6
- September 15, 2025: SF 1 @ ARI 8
- September 10, 2025: ARI 5 @ SF 3
- September 09, 2025: ARI 3 @ SF 5
- September 08, 2025: ARI 5 @ SF 11
- July 03, 2025: SF 7 @ ARI 2
- July 02, 2025: SF 6 @ ARI 5
- July 01, 2025: SF 2 @ ARI 8
Over/Under Trends
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 10.2 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks’ combination of recent 4–1 form, strong 40–34 home record, and offensive balance from Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte gives them a decisive edge over a Giants team that has stumbled to 1–4 in their last five. With head-to-head momentum from back-to-back wins in this series and a consistent scoring profile, Arizona is the clear side to back with confidence.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 6.6 RPG and the San Francisco Giants at 4.0 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 17, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
