Introduction

More MLB picks: Los Angeles Dodgers · Pittsburgh Pirates

The Dodgers’ offense has sputtered with just 2.6 runs per game across their last five, while the Pirates have surged to 5.6 in the same span, creating a sharp contrast heading into this MLB prediction. Despite Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form, Los Angeles still carries superior season metrics and a deeper lineup that can quickly reset the scoring tone. With both clubs combining for 8.2 runs per game lately, this matchup sets up as a high‑scoring opportunity where the Dodgers’ talent edge should ultimately dictate the result.

Game Time

First pitch is set for Thursday, September 4 at 06:40 PM ET at PNC Park, a slight under lean from the park profile.

Odds & Spread Line

• Los Angeles Dodgers: -125
• Pittsburgh Pirates: +104

Total: 7

• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+145)
• Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-170)

Latest Team Records

Los Angeles Dodgers: 78-60 (Win %: 0.565)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 62-77 (Win %: 0.446)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Gavin Stone (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.279 AVG, 46 HR, 87 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.297 AVG, 18 HR, 76 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.275 AVG, 24 HR, 78 RBI

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 14 HR, 68 RBI
• Tommy Pham: 0.267 AVG, 8 HR, 47 RBI
• Andrew McCutchen: 0.247 AVG, 12 HR, 51 RBI

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have dropped four of their last five, averaging just 2.6 runs per game in that span, a clear sign of a temporary slump. Still, their 78-60 record demonstrates sustained consistency across the season, and their road production of 33 wins shows they can travel well. Shohei Ohtani remains the centerpiece of an offense that can break out at any moment, and his power threat forces opposing pitchers into high-stress counts.

Over the last 10 games, Los Angeles has stabilized at 4.0 runs per contest, pointing to a lineup that is regaining rhythm despite the rough patch. Andy Pages’ ability to drive in runs adds balance behind Freddie Freeman’s steady contact profile, ensuring multiple scoring avenues. With a strong OPS and season-long run output, this group is positioned to rebound quickly and assert itself against Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 707
• Home Runs: 204
• OBP: 0.329
• SLG: 0.438
• OPS: 0.768
• ERA: 4.12
• WHIP: 1.29

Away Record: 33-35 • Home Record: 45-26
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh has surged with a 4-1 mark over the last five, producing 5.6 runs per game, a rate that has boosted confidence at home. Bryan Reynolds has been central to this scoring burst, consistently driving in runs and setting the tone early in games. That said, their 62-77 record emphasizes season-long inconsistency, and their lineup lacks the same depth as Los Angeles when games tighten late.

Over the last 10 contests, Pittsburgh has averaged 4.9 runs per game, showing improved rhythm but still facing challenges against elite competition. Andrew McCutchen’s steady production adds experience, while Tommy Pham provides secondary offensive support, yet the Pirates’ attack depends heavily on streaks rather than sustained efficiency. Even with a strong home record, they remain vulnerable against a Dodgers group that thrives on higher-leverage matchups.

• Batting Average: 0.234
• Total Runs Scored: 509
• Home Runs: 100
• OBP: 0.308
• SLG: 0.353
• OPS: 0.66
• ERA: 3.91
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 22-47 • Home Record: 41-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.9 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Pittsburgh Pirates lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• September 03, 2025: LAD 0 @ PIT 3
• September 02, 2025: LAD 7 @ PIT 9
• April 27, 2025: PIT 2 @ LAD 9
• April 26, 2025: PIT 4 @ LAD 8
• April 25, 2025: PIT 3 @ LAD 0

Over/Under Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 8.1 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Despite recent offensive struggles, the Dodgers’ overall scoring profile and deeper lineup anchored by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman give them a superior edge against a Pirates team that has leaned on short-term streaks. Their season-long production and ability to generate extra-base power make them the stronger side, and the matchup favors Los Angeles to impose its quality over nine innings.

Form and matchup edges favor the Los Angeles Dodgers — back them.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Pittsburgh Pirates are at 5.6 RPG and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 2.6 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 8.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Over 7.0.

Bookmakers

Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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