MLB Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Thursday, September 25 at 03:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | LAD | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -149 | +134 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-114) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Record | 88–69 | 80–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Los Angeles Dodgers · Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers enter this matchup analysis with steadier form, winning 6 of their last 10 while averaging 5.1 runs per game, signaling offensive balance heading into Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been productive as well, but Los Angeles’ ability to sustain scoring across multiple bats creates a sharper edge. With both clubs clearing 8.5 runs in 7 of their last 10, the total leans high, and the Dodgers’ consistency positions them as the superior moneyline side.
Game Time
Slated for Thursday, September 25 at 03:40 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -149
- Arizona Diamondbacks: +134
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-105)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-114)
Latest Team Records
Los Angeles Dodgers: 88-69 (Win %: 0.561)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 80-77 (Win %: 0.51)
Injury Report
Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Brock Stewart (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL; Michael Kopech (Knee), listed as 15-Day-IL; Tony Gonsolin (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani: 0.282 AVG, 53 HR, 99 RBI
- Freddie Freeman: 0.292 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
- Andy Pages: 0.277 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.291 AVG, 19 HR, 98 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.26 AVG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.28 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI
Team Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ 3-2 mark across their last five games reflects a team capable of responding to close contests, with a steady 4.6 runs per game over that span. On the road, they have faced challenges with a sub-.500 record, but their offensive stability, led by Shohei Ohtani’s power production, keeps them competitive in hostile environments. This ability to consistently generate runs on the road is a critical betting edge against Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching profile.
Across their last 10 games, Los Angeles has gone 6-4 with 5.1 runs per game, underscoring a healthy offensive rhythm. Freddie Freeman’s situational hitting reinforces the lineup’s depth, while Andy Pages adds additional run support that prevents extended scoring droughts. When combining this form with their season-long run production, the Dodgers project as the more reliable side to back.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 803
- Home Runs: 235
- OBP: 0.328
- SLG: 0.44
- OPS: 0.768
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 37-40 • Home Record: 52-29
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.1 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks’ 3-2 record in their last five contests shows competitiveness, with 4.8 runs per game keeping them in scoring range. Geraldo Perdomo’s production in run creation has been pivotal, giving the Diamondbacks a steady bat at the top of their order. Their 43-37 home record reflects an ability to capitalize on familiar conditions, but their pitching staff has struggled to suppress higher-tier offenses like Los Angeles.
Over the last 10 games, Arizona Diamondbacks’ 7-3 record with 5.0 runs per game highlights recent efficiency, though their success has leaned heavily on timely hitting from Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. That reliance on clustered production leaves them vulnerable when facing deeper lineups, especially against teams like Los Angeles that can spread scoring threats across multiple hitters. While competitive at home, the Diamondbacks lack the consistent offensive ceiling to outpace the Dodgers across nine innings.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 782
- Home Runs: 210
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.434
- OPS: 0.759
- ERA: 4.42
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 43-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 24, 2025: LAD 5 @ ARI 4
- September 23, 2025: LAD 4 @ ARI 5
- August 31, 2025: ARI 4 @ LAD 5
- August 30, 2025: ARI 6 @ LAD 1
- August 29, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 0
- May 21, 2025: ARI 1 @ LAD 3
- May 20, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 4
- May 19, 2025: ARI 9 @ LAD 5
Over/Under Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Los Angeles’ superior offensive depth, highlighted by consistent run production from multiple bats, outweighs Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent home form. Their ability to generate steady scoring across the last 10 games combined with a narrow head-to-head edge positions them as the sharper moneyline side to back with confidence.
This sets up cleanly for the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Arizona Diamondbacks have produced 4.8 RPG and the Los Angeles Dodgers 4.6. With both teams averaging 9.4 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Over 8.5 outcome.
Bookmakers
MLB Data pulled from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Bovada, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
