Introduction

More MLB picks: Los Angeles Dodgers · Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers enter this matchup analysis on steadier footing, riding a 6-4 stretch across their last 10 while keeping scoring output consistent around 5.9 runs per game. Arizona has been solid at 7-3 in the same span, yet their edge has come largely from home comfort rather than sustained superiority against elite lineups. With both teams averaging just 8.2 combined runs over the last five contests, pace points directly toward a lower-scoring contest where Los Angeles’ deeper order gives them the decisive edge. This MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Dodgers controlling the game script and keeping totals suppressed.

Game Time

Game time: Wednesday, September 24 at 09:40 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Los Angeles Dodgers: -154
• Arizona Diamondbacks: +128

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+105)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-125)

Latest Team Records

Los Angeles Dodgers: 88-68 (Win %: 0.564)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 79-77 (Win %: 0.506)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Michael Kopech (Knee), listed as 15-Day-IL; Tony Gonsolin (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.283 AVG, 53 HR, 99 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.292 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.278 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.29 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.26 AVG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
• Ketel Marte: 0.28 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers’ last 5 games at 3-2 (4.0 RPG) reflect a team that is holding steady rather than surging, but their 6-4 mark over the last 10 indicates control of series outcomes. Road form at 36-40 shows vulnerability, yet the balance of their lineup with Shohei Ohtani’s power and Freddie Freeman’s on-base reliability keeps them competitive in any environment. Their ability to maintain scoring near 6 runs in the broader 10-game sample suggests a ceiling that Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has struggled to suppress consistently.

Andy Pages has emerged as a complementary force, adding depth that prevents opposing staffs from focusing solely on Ohtani and Freeman. The Dodgers’ pitching metrics, including a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, neutralize prolonged rallies and have proven effective against teams like Arizona that thrive on multi-hit innings. With their offense showing resilience despite road inconsistency, Los Angeles remains the sharper side in this matchup.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 794
• Home Runs: 232
• OBP: 0.329
• SLG: 0.44
• OPS: 0.769
• ERA: 4.02
• WHIP: 1.26

Away Record: 36-40 • Home Record: 52-29
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.9 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have gone 3-2 in their last 5 games while averaging 4.2 RPG, showing modest consistency but not a dominant surge. Their 7-3 run across the last 10 is encouraging, yet a closer look reveals that much of this stability has come at home where they are 43-36. Geraldo Perdomo has been a key contributor in keeping the lineup productive, but scoring output has not consistently separated them from stronger opponents.

Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte bring power to the middle of the order, but their lineup has struggled to generate sustained high totals against quality staffs. With a 4.43 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, pitching reliability remains a concern, especially when matched against a Dodgers team that can pressure pitchers throughout the order. While Arizona has been formidable at Chase Field, their inability to consistently suppress elite bats makes them less favorable in this spot.

• Batting Average: 0.252
• Total Runs Scored: 773
• Home Runs: 209
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.435
• OPS: 0.76
• ERA: 4.43
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 43-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)

• September 23, 2025: LAD 4 @ ARI 5
• August 31, 2025: ARI 4 @ LAD 5
• August 30, 2025: ARI 6 @ LAD 1
• August 29, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 0
• May 21, 2025: ARI 1 @ LAD 3
• May 20, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 4
• May 19, 2025: ARI 9 @ LAD 5
• May 11, 2025: LAD 8 @ ARI 1

Over/Under Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Dodgers’ recent 6-4 stretch with steady run production and their ability to neutralize Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense through balanced pitching and lineup depth makes them the sharper side. With Ohtani and Freeman anchoring a lineup that consistently pressures opposing staffs and a head-to-head history that shows Los Angeles winning key games, the Dodgers are the superior moneyline play.

We’re backing the Los Angeles Dodgers — the read is consistent across metrics.

Over/Under Prediction

With both clubs averaging 8.2 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Under 8.5 outcome.

Bookmakers

You’ll find these MLB markets at: FanDuel, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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