MLB Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (Thursday, September 18 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CHC | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +124 | -137 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Record | 88–64 | 76–76 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Chicago Cubs · Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs enter this matchup analysis on a 4-1 run across their last five games, generating 4.8 runs per outing during that stretch. That surge in scoring aligns with a season-long profile of steady production and puts them in position to challenge a Cincinnati Reds team sitting at .500 overall. With the Cubs’ road record holding strong and Cincinnati only splitting their last 10, the data points toward a decisive edge for Chicago in both form and consistency, while the pace of scoring tilts this MLB prediction toward an Over outcome on the total.
Game Time
Slated for Thursday, September 18 at 07:15 PM ET inside Great American Ball Park, fly balls leave in a hurry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago Cubs: +124
- Cincinnati Reds: -137
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-170)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+145)
Latest Team Records
Chicago Cubs: 88-64 (Win %: 0.579)
Cincinnati Reds: 76-76 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs are missing Eli Morgan (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Cincinnati Reds are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago Cubs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.247 AVG, 29 HR, 90 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.258 AVG, 29 HR, 81 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.243 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.263 AVG, 19 HR, 82 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.312 AVG, 9 HR, 42 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 4-1 mark across their last five games shows a group hitting its stride at the right moment, with almost five runs per contest during that surge. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a reliable run producer, and his consistent RBI contributions help stabilize an offense that is performing well on the road. With a 42-35 away record, this team has proven it can generate offense outside its own park, which adds confidence to their betting outlook.
Over their last 10 games, the Cubs have gone 7-3 while averaging 4.3 runs per game, underscoring steady momentum. Michael Busch’s power presence adds length to the lineup, while Seiya Suzuki continues to deliver timely run production. This balance across the order translates into dependable scoring, making the Cubs a strong moneyline side against a Reds team still searching for rhythm.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 743
- Home Runs: 205
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.428
- OPS: 0.75
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.19
Away Record: 42-35 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.3 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have split their last 10 games at 5-5 while averaging 3.8 runs per game, highlighting inconsistency despite occasional scoring bursts. Elly De La Cruz remains a central figure in their lineup, but his individual production hasn’t translated into steady team results. Their 40-34 home record shows competence at Great American Ball Park, yet recent inconsistency prevents them from capitalizing fully.
Over their last five, Cincinnati managed a 2-3 mark while averaging 5.2 runs per game, suggesting offense hasn’t been the issue but run prevention has lagged. Austin Hays’ steady contact work and Miguel Andujar’s efficiency have provided support, but defensive lapses and uneven pitching have undermined those efforts. Without consistency, the Reds struggle to match the Cubs’ current momentum in both scoring and form.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 682
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.391
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 40-34
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 06, 2025: CIN 1 @ CHC 6
- August 05, 2025: CIN 5 @ CHC 1
- August 04, 2025: CIN 3 @ CHC 2
- June 01, 2025: CIN 3 @ CHC 7
- May 31, 2025: CIN 0 @ CHC 2
- May 30, 2025: CIN 6 @ CHC 2
- May 25, 2025: CHC 11 @ CIN 8
- May 24, 2025: CHC 4 @ CIN 6
Over/Under Trends
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games combined with superior road form makes them the clear side against a Reds team stuck at .500. With consistent production from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs’ lineup depth provides the edge needed to convert recent momentum into another win.
Trend and context support the Chicago Cubs at +124 as the bet.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Cincinnati Reds at 5.2 RPG and the Chicago Cubs at 4.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars,
MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
