MLB Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Wednesday, September 17 at 12:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CHC | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -159 | +130 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (105) | +1.5 (-125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Record | 86–64 | 65–86 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Chicago Cubs · Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 stretch over their last five games, averaging 4.4 runs per contest, while the Pirates have slumped to 1-9 across their last ten with just 2.2 runs per game. That contrast in form directly shapes this MLB prediction, as Chicago Cubs’ offense continues to produce timely power while Pittsburgh Pirates’ attack has stalled. With such a clear gap in recent efficiency, the Cubs hold the betting edge and the overall scoring profile points away from a high‑run environment.
Game Time
Scheduled for Wednesday, September 17 at 12:35 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago Cubs: -159
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +130
Total: 8
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+105)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-125)
Latest Team Records
Chicago Cubs: 86-64 (Win %: 0.573)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 65-86 (Win %: 0.43)
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs are missing Ryan Brasier (Groin), listed as 15-Day-IL; Eli Morgan (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago Cubs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.248 AVG, 29 HR, 88 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.244 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.255 AVG, 28 HR, 79 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.243 AVG, 15 HR, 71 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.239 AVG, 13 HR, 55 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.249 AVG, 9 HR, 50 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 4-1 record over their last 5 games highlights a team playing with confidence and rhythm. Their road mark of 41-35 shows they are capable of carrying production into hostile environments, a key betting edge against a slumping opponent. With Pete Crow-Armstrong anchoring reliable pop and timely hitting, Chicago Cubs’ attack has been steady enough to support their strong team ERA.
Over their last 10 contests, the Cubs are 6-4 with 3.6 runs per game, reflecting a balanced profile that limits risk for bettors. Seiya Suzuki’s consistent run production has complemented Michael Busch’s power, giving Chicago multiple threats in the order. That blend of form and depth positions the Cubs as the clear moneyline side.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 731
- Home Runs: 202
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.427
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.19
Away Record: 41-35 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (3.6 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 1-4 stretch over their last 5 games with just 2.8 runs per outing signals an offense stuck in neutral. Their 42-35 home record provides some stability, but it has not offset the lack of scoring punch in recent weeks. Bryan Reynolds remains a steady presence, yet the lineup around him has failed to sustain rallies.
At 1-9 across their last 10 contests while averaging only 2.2 runs, Pittsburgh is firmly in a slump that limits betting confidence. Andrew McCutchen’s contributions have not been enough to prevent prolonged dry spells, and Tommy Pham has lacked impact in key spots. With such limited output, the Pirates are not positioned to threaten the Cubs’ current form.
- Batting Average: 0.23
- Total Runs Scored: 540
- Home Runs: 107
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.348
- OPS: 0.653
- ERA: 3.87
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 23-52 • Home Record: 42-35
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago Cubs lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 16, 2025: CHC 4 @ PIT 1
- September 15, 2025: CHC 4 @ PIT 0
- August 17, 2025: PIT 3 @ CHC 4
- August 16, 2025: PIT 1 @ CHC 3
- August 15, 2025: PIT 3 @ CHC 2
- June 15, 2025: PIT 2 @ CHC 3
- June 14, 2025: PIT 1 @ CHC 2
- June 13, 2025: PIT 2 @ CHC 1
Over/Under Trends
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 6.4 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.3 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Chicago Cubs’ 4-1 surge, paired with a strong 41-35 road record, contrasts sharply against Pittsburgh Pirates’ 1-9 collapse and limited run production. With reliable contributions from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Busch, and a 6-2 head-to-head edge, the Cubs are the definitive side to back here.
Confidence sits with the Chicago Cubs based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Pittsburgh Pirates at 2.8 RPG and the Chicago Cubs at 4.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 7.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
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