MLB Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Tuesday, September 16 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CHC | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +117 | -143 |
| Total (O/U) | 6.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (169) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Record | 86–64 | 65–86 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Chicago Cubs · Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs enter this matchup analysis with a 4-1 mark across their last five contests, averaging 4.2 runs per game during that stretch, while Pittsburgh has stumbled to a 1-9 record over its last ten. That contrast in form sets the tone for an assertive MLB prediction favoring Chicago Cubs’ ability to sustain pressure against a struggling Pirates lineup. With both teams combining for over seven runs per game recently, the total also leans toward a higher-scoring outcome.
Game Time
Scheduled for Tuesday, September 16 at 06:40 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago Cubs: +117
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -143
Total: 6.5
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-205)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+169)
Latest Team Records
Chicago Cubs: 86-64 (Win %: 0.573)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 65-86 (Win %: 0.43)
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs are missing Miguel Amaya (Ankle), listed as 10-Day-IL; Eli Morgan (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago Cubs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.248 AVG, 29 HR, 88 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.244 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.255 AVG, 28 HR, 79 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.243 AVG, 15 HR, 71 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.239 AVG, 13 HR, 55 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.249 AVG, 9 HR, 50 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 4-1 record in their last five games, with 4.2 runs per outing, highlights a team finding rhythm at the right time. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a reliable run producer, and when paired with Seiya Suzuki’s steady contributions, the offense has the balance needed to exploit Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching. Their 40-35 road record reveals resilience away from home, a key factor when weighing this matchup.
Michael Busch adds another layer of depth to an order that has been consistently above league average in power production, giving Chicago multiple ways to generate runs. With a 6-4 record over their last ten, the Cubs have maintained steady form, avoiding prolonged slumps. That consistency, paired with their ability to outscore opponents on the road, positions them as the more reliable betting side.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 731
- Home Runs: 202
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.427
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.19
Away Record: 40-35 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.3 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 1-4 record across their last five games, with only 3.0 runs per contest, reflects a lineup struggling for timely hits. Bryan Reynolds has been the most reliable bat, but the lack of consistent support means opponents can pitch around him. Despite a respectable 42-34 home record, the current stretch of form neutralizes that advantage.
Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham have provided occasional sparks, but the Pirates’ 1-9 skid in their last ten games makes it clear the offense is stuck in neutral. At just 2.3 runs per game in that span, production has fallen well below competitive levels. Until the lineup strings together sustained rallies, Pittsburgh remains a fade candidate in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.23
- Total Runs Scored: 540
- Home Runs: 107
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.348
- OPS: 0.653
- ERA: 3.87
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 23-52 • Home Record: 42-34
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago Cubs lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 15, 2025: CHC 4 @ PIT 0
- August 17, 2025: PIT 3 @ CHC 4
- August 16, 2025: PIT 1 @ CHC 3
- August 15, 2025: PIT 3 @ CHC 2
- June 15, 2025: PIT 2 @ CHC 3
- June 14, 2025: PIT 1 @ CHC 2
- June 13, 2025: PIT 2 @ CHC 1
- June 12, 2025: PIT 2 @ CHC 3
Over/Under Trends
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 7.5 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 6.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.5 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 6.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ 6-4 stretch over their last ten, paired with a 40-35 road mark, positions them as the sharper side against a Pirates team that has dropped nine of ten. With Chicago holding a 6-2 head-to-head edge and getting run support from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Busch, the data clearly backs the Cubs to extend their dominance in this series.
The Chicago Cubs at +117 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Pittsburgh Pirates at 3.0 RPG and the Chicago Cubs at 4.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 7.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 6.5. That points toward the Over 6.5.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How does Parlamaz make Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB predictions?
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