MLB Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays (Thursday, August 14 at 03:05 PM ET)
Introduction
The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs meet in an American League and National League showdown that shapes up as a disciplined, low-scoring affair. With the Cubs’ last 10 games averaging just 6.4 total runs, the pace points sharply toward a conservative scoreboard. This MLB prediction leans on Toronto’s superior home record and situational edge, where their ability to control tempo and limit damage aligns perfectly with an Under play.
Game Time
The action begins at Thursday, August 14 at 03:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre, roof and surface add speed.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago Cubs: -109
- Toronto Blue Jays: -110
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+158)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-192)
Latest Team Records
Chicago Cubs: 68-51 (Win %: 0.571)
Toronto Blue Jays: 70-51 (Win %: 0.579)
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs are missing Miguel Amaya (Leg), listed as Out; Jameson Taillon (Calf), listed as 15-Day-IL; Michael Soroka (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.248 AVG, 27 HR, 84 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.257 AVG, 27 HR, 78 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.263 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.297 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.3 AVG, 19 HR, 64 RBI
- George Springer: 0.291 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs enter with a 2-3 mark over their last 5 games, producing just 3.2 runs per game in that stretch, a sign of inconsistent offensive execution. Away from home, their 32-29 record shows competitive capability, but recent road scoring lulls have limited their ability to capitalize. Seiya Suzuki’s power threat remains a factor, yet the lineup’s inability to string together high-contact innings has kept output in check against quality pitching.
Over the last 10 games, Chicago Cubs’ 4-6 record and 3.3 RPG confirm a pattern of middling production. Pete Crow-Armstrong brings pop, but the lack of sustained rallies has put pressure on pitching to carry results. Michael Busch has contributed timely hits, but without a surge in multi-run innings, the Cubs face a challenging path against Toronto’s home-field efficiency.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 600
- Home Runs: 167
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.435
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 3.89
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 32-29 • Home Record: 36-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.3 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s 2-3 record in their last 5 games hides the advantage of a 39-20 home record, where they consistently convert situational hitting into wins. At 2.6 RPG in that span, the offense has been inconsistent, but Bo Bichette’s ability to produce runs in key moments keeps them competitive. Their home dominance suggests a strong probability of controlling tempo and limiting Chicago Cubs’ scoring lanes.
In the last 10 games, the Blue Jays are 6-4 with an impressive 6.6 RPG, indicating they can break games open when needed. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been instrumental in extending innings, while George Springer’s production adds depth to the order. Against a Cubs team struggling to find rhythm on the road, Toronto’s balanced attack and proven home-field record form a decisive edge.
- Batting Average: 0.27
- Total Runs Scored: 588
- Home Runs: 139
- OBP: 0.34
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.769
- ERA: 4.25
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 31-31 • Home Record: 39-20
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- August 13, 2025: CHC 4 @ TOR 1
- August 12, 2025: CHC 1 @ TOR 5
Over/Under Trends
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 6.4 total runs, with 1 game that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Toronto’s commanding 39-20 home record and their ability to elevate run production to 6.6 RPG over the last 10 games make them a superior side in this matchup. Their recent head-to-head win and depth from Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer give them multiple paths to manufacturing runs while containing Chicago Cubs’ uneven attack. With the Cubs’ road scoring stuck in the low-3s per game, Toronto’s situational hitting and home-field consistency should dictate the outcome.
The Toronto Blue Jays are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Toronto Blue Jays at 2.6 RPG and the Chicago Cubs at 3.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 5.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That leans to a Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 14, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Avoid parlays unless edges stack; never risk what you can’t afford to lose.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
