MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (Sunday, August 31 at 12:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +117 | -137 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-182) | -1.5 (155) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| Record | 68–69 | 68–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Cincinnati Reds
The Reds enter this matchup analysis on a five-game skid, averaging just 2.2 runs per outing across that stretch, but their underlying numbers suggest value at home against a Cardinals team that has been splitting results. St. Louis is 3-2 in its last five with 3.8 runs per game, yet its road mark remains under .500 and limits confidence. The sharper angle comes from Cincinnati Reds’ balance of pitching efficiency and timely hitting upside, making this an MLB prediction that leans toward the home side while projecting a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the market total suggests.
Game Time
On tap at Sunday, August 31 at 12:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +117
- Cincinnati Reds: -137
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-182)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+155)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 68-69 (Win %: 0.496)
Cincinnati Reds: 68-68 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.286 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.253 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.285 AVG, 11 HR, 49 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.273 AVG, 19 HR, 77 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.312 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI
- Noelvi Marte: 0.295 AVG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have steadied at 3-2 across their last five, averaging 3.8 runs per game in that span, a sign of modest offensive consistency. Their overall record of 68-69 reveals a team unable to separate from mediocrity, and their 31-37 road mark continues to weigh against them in betting markets. Alec Burleson has been a steady contributor, but the lineup still lacks the top-to-bottom run production needed to reliably support moneyline backers away from home.
St. Louis has hovered at 5-5 across its last ten contests, producing 4.3 runs per game, which signals an average offense without any surge. Willson Contreras has delivered power, but Ivan Herrera’s production is often lost in stretches where the team fails to string hits together. Against a Reds staff that is limiting opponents efficiently, the Cardinals’ inconsistency on the road makes them a weaker side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 595
- Home Runs: 129
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.384
- OPS: 0.7
- ERA: 4.28
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 31-37 • Home Record: 37-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.3 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have stumbled with an 0-5 mark across their last five, scoring just 2.2 runs per game, yet their home record sits at 36-31 and has been a stabilizing factor this season. Elly De La Cruz remains a central offensive force, and while the lineup has cooled, his ability to impact games shifts pressure back onto the Cardinals’ staff. Cincinnati Reds’ pitching advantage is stronger than its recent scoring dip, giving them a clear edge at Great American Ball Park.
Across the last ten games, Cincinnati is 2-8 with 3.0 runs per game, a slump that has masked the value of Miguel Andujar and Noelvi Marte in the order. Despite the downturn, their season-long run differential and efficiency metrics remain favorable compared to St. Louis Cardinals’ road tendencies. The Reds’ ability to leverage home situational edges and their deeper lineup upside makes them the sharper side for bettors.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 602
- Home Runs: 133
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.39
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 3.84
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 32-37 • Home Record: 36-31
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- August 30, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 2
- August 29, 2025: STL 7 @ CIN 5
- June 22, 2025: CIN 4 @ STL 1
- June 21, 2025: CIN 5 @ STL 6
- June 20, 2025: CIN 1 @ STL 6
- May 01, 2025: STL 1 @ CIN 9
- April 30, 2025: STL 9 @ CIN 1
- April 30, 2025: STL 6 @ CIN 0
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.4 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Cincinnati Reds’ home record advantage, paired with the Cardinals’ losing road split, tilts this matchup toward the Reds despite recent scoring struggles. With Elly De La Cruz driving production and a pitching staff that has outperformed St. Louis Cardinals’, the Reds hold the sharper edge at this venue and are the firm side to back.
We’re backing the Cincinnati Reds to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Cincinnati Reds at 2.2 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 3.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 6.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag,
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How does Parlamaz make St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 31, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
