MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (Friday, August 29 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +107 | -125 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-195) | -1.5 (162) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Record | 65–69 | 68–66 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati enters this matchup analysis off a 1-4 stretch in its last five games, averaging only 2.2 runs, yet still holding the stronger season record compared to St. Louis. The Cardinals have been inconsistent with a 2-3 mark across their last five, producing 3.4 runs per contest while struggling to sustain offense on the road. With recent numbers pointing toward suppressed scoring environments, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Reds’ situational edge and a low-scoring outcome.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Friday, August 29 at 06:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +107
- Cincinnati Reds: -125
Total: 9
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-195)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+162)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 65-69 (Win %: 0.485)
Cincinnati Reds: 68-66 (Win %: 0.507)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.288 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.281 AVG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.272 AVG, 19 HR, 77 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.307 AVG, 9 HR, 39 RBI
- Noelvi Marte: 0.293 AVG, 11 HR, 41 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ recent form has been uneven, reflected by their 2-3 record in the last five games and just 3.4 runs per outing during that stretch. This inconsistency has been especially evident on the road, where their 29-37 mark shows a lack of sustained production away from home. While Alec Burleson provides steady contact, the overall lineup has not been able to string together enough offensive momentum to overcome stronger opponents.
Over the longer 10-game window, St. Louis has played to a 5-5 record, averaging 4.7 runs, but that balance masks the volatility of their scoring profile. Willson Contreras has been the primary source of power, yet the supporting cast has not delivered consistent run support. With an ERA north of four and unreliable offensive rhythm, the Cardinals do not present a convincing case as the value side in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 584
- Home Runs: 126
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.383
- OPS: 0.699
- ERA: 4.31
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 37-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have stumbled to a 1-4 record in their last five games, scoring just 2.2 runs per contest, but their home record of 36-29 highlights why they remain the sharper side in this matchup. Elly De La Cruz continues to be a key run producer, and his ability to drive in runs provides a stabilizing factor for a team looking to snap out of its scoring drought. Despite the slump, the Reds’ pitching staff has maintained a superior ERA compared to St. Louis, allowing them to stay in games even when the bats are quiet.
Looking at the last 10 games, Cincinnati sits at 4-6 with 3.0 runs per game, showing a need for offensive improvement. Miguel Andujar has been one of the few consistent hitters in this stretch, giving them a reliable contact option when others have cooled off. With stronger overall balance between pitching and selective offensive sparks from Noelvi Marte, the Reds hold the edge at home against a Cardinals team that has failed to translate road at-bats into wins.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 597
- Home Runs: 130
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.704
- ERA: 3.84
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 32-37 • Home Record: 36-29
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 4–3 (Last 7 games)
- June 22, 2025: CIN 4 @ STL 1
- June 21, 2025: CIN 5 @ STL 6
- June 20, 2025: CIN 1 @ STL 6
- May 01, 2025: STL 1 @ CIN 9
- April 30, 2025: STL 9 @ CIN 1
- April 30, 2025: STL 6 @ CIN 0
- April 28, 2025: STL 1 @ CIN 3
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Reds’ superior home record, steadier pitching profile, and ability to lean on productive bats like Elly De La Cruz and Miguel Andujar make them the sharper side despite recent scoring struggles. With St. Louis failing to show reliability on the road and Cincinnati maintaining defensive control, the Reds present the stronger moneyline value and are positioned to take this contest.
Markets point to the Cincinnati Reds as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Cincinnati Reds at 2.2 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 3.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 5.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 29, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
