Introduction

More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Tampa Bay Rays

The Cardinals’ last 10 games have produced 11.0 runs on average, a clear signal this interleague matchup sets up for high scoring. This MLB prediction leans heavily on recent offensive patterns, with St. Louis generating 6.0 RPG in its last five and Tampa Bay still putting up over four runs per contest despite a 1-4 skid. With both teams showing a tendency to clear totals, the Rays’ balanced lineup and home setting provide the decisive edge.

Game Time

First pitch comes at Sunday, August 24 at 12:10 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.

Odds & Spread Line

• St. Louis Cardinals: +114
• Tampa Bay Rays: -125

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-192)
• Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+158)

Latest Team Records

St. Louis Cardinals: 64-66 (Win %: 0.492)
Tampa Bay Rays: 62-67 (Win %: 0.481)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

St. Louis Cardinals

• Willson Contreras: 0.263 AVG, 19 HR, 70 RBI
• Alec Burleson: 0.285 AVG, 15 HR, 59 RBI
• Ivan Herrera: 0.283 AVG, 10 HR, 47 RBI

Tampa Bay Rays

• Junior Caminero: 0.255 AVG, 36 HR, 87 RBI
• Yandy Diaz: 0.281 AVG, 21 HR, 73 RBI
• Brandon Lowe: 0.268 AVG, 25 HR, 63 RBI

Team Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals enter with a 64-66 record and a recent 3-2 stretch in their last five games, averaging 6.0 RPG. That uptick shows their lineup snapping back after a 3-7 mark across the last 10, where inconsistency plagued their run production. Willson Contreras has been a key source of middle-order strength, keeping them competitive even when the pitching staff has been uneven.

Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera add depth, but the Cardinals’ away record of 29-36 signals vulnerability on the road. Their offensive bursts have not consistently translated in hostile environments, and defensive lapses have widened the margin. Unless the bats sustain the recent five-game pace, they risk being outpaced against a Rays team that thrives at home.

• Batting Average: 0.25
• Total Runs Scored: 571
• Home Runs: 124
• OBP: 0.318
• SLG: 0.387
• OPS: 0.705
• ERA: 4.29
• WHIP: 1.3

Away Record: 29-36 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (5.0 RPG)

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays sit at 62-67 with a 1-4 mark in their last five games, averaging 4.4 RPG during that stretch. Despite that slump, their last 10 games show balance at 5-5 with 4.6 RPG, proving they can sustain offense over a longer horizon. Junior Caminero’s power numbers keep them dangerous, and Yandy Diaz provides consistent contact to stabilize the lineup.

At home, Tampa Bay is 33-33, a record that reveals their ability to rebound in familiar conditions. Brandon Lowe’s run production adds another layer of scoring potential that should pressure the Cardinals’ pitching staff. With the support of their home environment and a deeper offensive ceiling, the Rays project as the sharper side.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 577
• Home Runs: 143
• OBP: 0.314
• SLG: 0.4
• OPS: 0.714
• ERA: 4.03
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 33-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.6 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)

• August 22, 2025: STL 6 @ TB 10
• August 21, 2025: STL 7 @ TB 4

Over/Under Trends

St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 11.0 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Rays’ offensive balance, led by Junior Caminero’s power and Yandy Diaz’s steady contact, aligns with their ability to control games at home. Even with a recent 1-4 stretch, their performance at Tropicana Field and the Cardinals’ weak road record tilt the matchup in Tampa Bay Rays’ favor. Their deeper lineup and situational edge make them the clear moneyline side.

Form and matchup edges favor the Tampa Bay Rays — back them.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Tampa Bay Rays have produced 4.4 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals 6.0. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 10.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

Shop the odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada, BetRivers, BetUS.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

X (Twitter)