MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays (Friday, August 22 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +114 | -137 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (155) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 2.8 |
| Record | 64–65 | 61–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Tampa Bay Rays
The Cardinals enter this interleague matchup against the Rays showing a 3-2 mark in their last five, averaging 5.6 runs per game, while Tampa Bay has stumbled to a 1-4 stretch with just 2.8 runs per contest. That recent scoring contrast frames this MLB prediction with a clear betting edge favoring the home side and a lean toward a lower-scoring result. The numbers point to a disciplined approach: St. Louis has been inconsistent on the road, and Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching profile aligns with suppressing offense in a tight game script.
Game Time
This one goes at Friday, August 22 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +114
- Tampa Bay Rays: -137
Total: 9
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-180)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+155)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 64-65 (Win %: 0.496)
Tampa Bay Rays: 61-67 (Win %: 0.477)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.284 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.259 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.285 AVG, 10 HR, 46 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.255 AVG, 35 HR, 85 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.279 AVG, 20 HR, 71 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.269 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals sit just under .500 and remain inconsistent away from home with a 29-35 road record. Their last 5 games at 3-2 show modest stability, but the 4-6 mark across their last 10 suggests volatility in output. Alec Burleson has been a steady contributor, yet road struggles have kept the lineup from delivering consistent run support against stronger pitching environments.
Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera give the Cardinals lineup balance, but the group’s offensive rhythm hasn’t translated into sustained winning stretches. Scoring has been serviceable in the short term, though the broader trend points to difficulty maintaining that pace away from home. The overall profile suggests a capable but unreliable road side that lacks the edge to consistently close games against disciplined opponents like Tampa Bay.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 558
- Home Runs: 121
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.386
- OPS: 0.703
- ERA: 4.25
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 29-35 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are slightly under .500 overall but remain competitive at home with a 32-33 record. Their last five games at 1-4 highlight offensive inconsistency, yet the pitching staff has kept games within reach, allowing them to stay viable against higher-scoring opponents. Junior Caminero’s power output gives Tampa Bay a dangerous middle-of-the-order presence that can shift momentum quickly.
Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe provide balance around Caminero, helping stabilize a lineup that has struggled for runs recently but is positioned to rebound at Tropicana Field. Despite the 4-6 mark in their last 10, the Rays’ ability to generate timely offense at home and pair it with steadier pitching gives them the sharper betting profile. This is the type of matchup where Tampa Bay Rays’ situational edge outweighs recent scoring dips.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 563
- Home Runs: 138
- OBP: 0.312
- SLG: 0.396
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.0
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 32-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 1–0 (Most recent game)
- August 21, 2025: STL 7 @ TB 4
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays’ home form and pitching baseline make them the sharper side against a Cardinals team that has been unreliable on the road and inconsistent over the last ten. With Junior Caminero anchoring power production and Diaz and Lowe supplementing the order, the Rays hold the lineup advantage in a game that profiles lower scoring. The situational edge points directly to Tampa Bay as the superior moneyline play.
We’re backing the Tampa Bay Rays to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Tampa Bay Rays have produced 2.8 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals 5.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
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Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
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