MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays (Thursday, August 21 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (143) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 63–64 | 61–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Tampa Bay Rays
The Cardinals’ last five games have produced 5.8 runs per outing, a level of offensive rhythm that gives them a sharper edge in this interleague matchup analysis against the Rays. Tampa Bay has struggled to find consistency with just 3.4 runs per game over the same span, exposing a gap in scoring efficiency. This game profiles as an MLB prediction where St. Louis Cardinals’ steadier attack and proven ability to generate runs on the road outweigh Tampa Bay Rays’ home splits.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Thursday, August 21 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: -120
- Tampa Bay Rays: +100
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+143)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-170)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 63-64 (Win %: 0.496)
Tampa Bay Rays: 61-65 (Win %: 0.484)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.287 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.26 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.289 AVG, 10 HR, 46 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.255 AVG, 35 HR, 85 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.282 AVG, 20 HR, 71 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.271 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this contest at 63-64 with a recent 2-3 mark over their last five games, producing 5.8 runs per game in that stretch. That scoring consistency has kept them competitive despite losses, with Willson Contreras continuing to provide impactful at-bats in the middle of the order. St. Louis has not dominated on the road, but their ability to produce runs away from home offsets a sub-.500 travel record.
Looking at ten-game form, a 4-6 record with 4.3 runs per game reflects uneven results but no offensive collapse. Alec Burleson’s steady contact rate has helped sustain rallies, while Ivan Herrera’s contributions add balance deeper in the order. The Cardinals’ offensive profile remains reliable enough to exploit Tampa Bay Rays’ inconsistencies, positioning them as the sharper moneyline side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 556
- Home Runs: 120
- OBP: 0.319
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.705
- ERA: 4.23
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 28-35 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.3 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays sit at 61-65 with a 2-3 mark across their last five games, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest. That offensive dip has put pressure on their pitching staff, and even with Junior Caminero’s power threat, the lineup has lacked consistency. Their home record sits at 32-32, showing no clear advantage at Tropicana Field.
Over the last ten games, Tampa Bay is 4-6 while scoring 3.9 runs per game, a profile that drives home their offensive struggles. Yandy Diaz has delivered steady production, but Brandon Lowe’s numbers have not translated into sustained team output. Against a Cardinals offense generating more runs recently, Tampa Bay Rays’ lack of rhythm leaves them in a weaker betting position despite home-field balance.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 559
- Home Runs: 137
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.397
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 32-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ recent scoring edge, producing nearly two and a half more runs per game than the Rays across the last five, creates a decisive advantage. Their ability to generate offense on the road, coupled with consistent production from multiple lineup spots, makes them the superior side despite Tampa Bay Rays’ even home record. This interleague matchup favors the Cardinals’ offensive depth and situational form, making them the clear betting choice.
The St. Louis Cardinals are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Tampa Bay Rays are at 3.4 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 5.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
