MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins (Wednesday, August 20 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +104 | -130 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-198) | -1.5 (169) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| Record | 63–64 | 59–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS, Bovada, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Miami Marlins
Consistency has been elusive for both sides, but this matchup analysis highlights a clear betting edge. The Cardinals have averaged 6.0 runs per game across their last 5, while Miami sits at 3.6, producing a combined pace above the posted total. With both lineups showing enough run support to drive scoring, this MLB prediction leans toward the Marlins’ upside at home and a high-scoring outcome that clears the number.
Game Time
Slated for Wednesday, August 20 at 06:40 PM ET inside pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park with controlled scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +104
- Miami Marlins: -130
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-198)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+169)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 63-64 (Win %: 0.496)
Miami Marlins: 59-67 (Win %: 0.468)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.288 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.258 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.287 AVG, 10 HR, 43 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.237 AVG, 18 HR, 56 RBI
- Xavier Edwards: 0.302 AVG, 2 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this contest at 63-64, reflecting a season hovering around .500 with inconsistent results. Their last 5 games show a 2-3 record while averaging 6.0 runs per game, which signals offensive bursts but not enough to secure wins. Alec Burleson has been a steady contributor, yet the team’s 28-34 road record continues to drag down betting confidence away from home.
Across their last 10 outings, St. Louis sits at 4-6 with 4.2 runs per game, a stretch that speaks to uneven production. Willson Contreras has been capable of driving in runs, but the inability to sustain scoring pressure late in games has cost them. Ivan Herrera provides additional lineup depth, but the away splits and recent uneven form keep the Cardinals from being a reliable betting side in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 549
- Home Runs: 120
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.705
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 28-34 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.2 RPG)
Miami Marlins
The Marlins sit at 59-67, but their offensive profile shows more upside than their record suggests. Despite going 1-4 in their last 5 with 3.6 runs per game, Kyle Stowers has been a consistent power source and keeps the lineup dangerous. Their 28-33 home record shows they can stay competitive in this venue, and with St. Louis struggling on the road, the Marlins hold the sharper angle here.
Over the last 10 games, Miami is 2-8 but still averaging 4.5 runs per game, demonstrating that run production hasn’t fully collapsed. Agustin Ramirez adds secondary power while Xavier Edwards provides on-base balance, keeping the order from being one-dimensional. With their offense capable of stringing together scoring innings at home, the Marlins project as the more reliable moneyline side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 539
- Home Runs: 123
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.397
- OPS: 0.712
- ERA: 4.55
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 31-34 • Home Record: 28-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- August 19, 2025: STL 7 @ MIA 4
- August 18, 2025: STL 8 @ MIA 3
- July 30, 2025: MIA 2 @ STL 0
- July 29, 2025: MIA 5 @ STL 0
- July 28, 2025: MIA 1 @ STL 7
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.5 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ home splits, combined with consistent production from Kyle Stowers and balanced support from Agustin Ramirez and Xavier Edwards, make them the sharper side despite their record. St. Louis has struggled to capitalize on recent scoring bursts when away from home, while Miami Marlins’ lineup has shown more stability in generating runs at this venue. The Marlins hold the situational and offensive edge, making them the clear moneyline play.
The Miami Marlins are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Miami Marlins at 3.6 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 6.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 20, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
