MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants (Tuesday, September 23 at 09:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +165 | -200 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-134) | -1.5 (114) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| Record | 76–80 | 77–79 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · San Francisco Giants
The Cardinals enter this matchup analysis having averaged 4.4 runs per game across their last 5, while the Giants have stumbled with just 3.4 per outing in the same stretch. That scoring gap highlights the sharper rhythm of St. Louis against a San Francisco team struggling to generate consistent offense. With the Cardinals leading the recent head-to-head series 3–1, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the visitors, especially given San Francisco Giants’ uneven run production at home.
Game Time
The action begins at Tuesday, September 23 at 09:45 PM ET inside Oracle Park, fly balls die quickly.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +165
- San Francisco Giants: -200
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-134)
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+114)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 76-80 (Win %: 0.487)
San Francisco Giants: 77-79 (Win %: 0.494)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.289 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.281 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.251 AVG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
- Willy Adames: 0.226 AVG, 28 HR, 83 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.256 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 3-2 mark over their last 5 games shows balance, with their 4.4 runs per game reflecting steady offensive output. Alec Burleson’s season-long consistency has added stability to the lineup, giving St. Louis confidence when traveling despite their 33-43 road record. That ability to keep runs flowing on the road makes them a live underdog, especially against a Giants team that has been sputtering at home.
Willson Contreras has been a reliable run producer, complementing Ivan Herrera’s ability to extend innings and keep pitchers under pressure. The Cardinals’ last 10 at 5-5 demonstrates a neutral trajectory, but their ability to split tough stretches proves resilience. With the Giants’ offense lagging, St. Louis Cardinals’ balanced scoring gives them a clear edge in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 667
- Home Runs: 143
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.378
- OPS: 0.692
- ERA: 4.23
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 33-43 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.4 RPG)
San Francisco Giants
The Giants enter with a 1-4 record in their last 5, averaging just 3.4 runs per game in that span, which signals a lack of rhythm at the plate. Rafael Devers has carried the heaviest load, but the lack of consistent support has left San Francisco unable to sustain rallies. Their 38-38 home record lays bare the mediocrity that has plagued them in front of their own fans.
Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos have offered flashes, but neither has been able to elevate the offense during their 2-8 skid across the last 10 games. The inability to string together productive outings has left San Francisco vulnerable, particularly against a Cardinals lineup that has been more consistent. With recent results pointing downward, the Giants’ offense looks ill-suited to outpace St. Louis in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.234
- Total Runs Scored: 674
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.311
- SLG: 0.384
- OPS: 0.695
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 39-42 • Home Record: 38-38
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 22, 2025: STL 6 @ SF 5
- September 07, 2025: SF 3 @ STL 4
- September 06, 2025: SF 2 @ STL 3
- September 05, 2025: SF 8 @ STL 2
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.0 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ steadier scoring profile, combined with the Giants’ 1-4 skid and neutral home record, makes St. Louis the sharper side. With consistent contributions across their lineup and a recent head-to-head edge, the Cardinals are positioned to control this matchup from start to finish.
The St. Louis Cardinals at +165 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Francisco Giants are at 3.4 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 4.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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