MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants (Monday, September 22 at 09:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -149 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (150) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 75–80 | 76–79 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · San Francisco Giants
San Francisco enters this matchup analysis with a razor-thin edge in the standings and the comfort of home form, while St. Louis drags along a 32-43 road mark that has been a consistent liability. The Cardinals’ recent 3-2 stretch has been uneven, producing 3.8 runs per game, while the Giants have been held to 3.4 runs per game across their last five. With both lineups showing modest production, the sharper angle comes from identifying which side can capitalize on situational edges, and the Giants’ balance and home stability make them the superior MLB prediction.
Game Time
Game time: Monday, September 22 at 09:45 PM ET at Oracle Park, marine air knocks down carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +125
- San Francisco Giants: -149
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-175)
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+150)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 75-80 (Win %: 0.484)
San Francisco Giants: 76-79 (Win %: 0.49)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.289 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.279 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.251 AVG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
- Willy Adames: 0.227 AVG, 28 HR, 82 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.258 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 3-2 mark in their last 5 games reflects inconsistency, with scoring output sitting at 3.8 runs per contest. Alec Burleson has been a steady contributor, but the offense overall has not strung together enough high-impact innings to mask their 32-43 road weakness. This lack of reliable production on the road limits their ceiling against opponents with stronger situational form.
Willson Contreras has provided steady power numbers, yet the Cardinals’ broader run-scoring trend in their last 10 games at 4.0 RPG remains pedestrian. Ivan Herrera’s contributions have been notable, but the club’s rhythm continues to stall away from home, undermining their ability to sustain pressure over nine innings. Against a disciplined Giants staff, this profile suggests St. Louis will struggle to outpace their hosts.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 662
- Home Runs: 142
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.378
- OPS: 0.693
- ERA: 4.25
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 32-43 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.0 RPG)
San Francisco Giants
The Giants’ 2-3 record across their last 5 games and 3-7 over their last 10 highlight uneven form, but their 38-37 home record offers a stabilizing factor. Rafael Devers has delivered elite run production, and that type of anchor bat gives San Francisco the necessary edge in tight games. Their scoring rate of 3.4 runs per game in the last 5 suggests modest output, yet at home they remain more balanced and capable of exploiting St. Louis’ travel struggles.
Willy Adames adds pop that prevents opposing pitchers from working around Devers, while Heliot Ramos has chipped in consistent depth production. Even with recent scoring inconsistency, San Francisco Giants’ pitching metrics and their ability to limit damage at home put them in a favorable position against a Cardinals lineup that has not traveled well. The Giants’ situational edge in this matchup makes them the more reliable side to back.
- Batting Average: 0.235
- Total Runs Scored: 671
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.311
- SLG: 0.385
- OPS: 0.696
- ERA: 3.87
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 39-42 • Home Record: 38-37
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- September 07, 2025: SF 3 @ STL 4
- September 06, 2025: SF 2 @ STL 3
- September 05, 2025: SF 8 @ STL 2
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Giants carry the sharper betting angle with a home record that steadies their recent dip and a lineup anchored by Rafael Devers’ run production. With support from Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos, and facing a Cardinals squad that has consistently faltered on the road, San Francisco presents the more reliable side to back with confidence.
Form and matchup edges favor the San Francisco Giants — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Francisco Giants are at 3.4 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 3.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, FanDuel, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 22, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
