MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (Saturday, September 27 at 02:20 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -169 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-135) | -1.5 (115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 6.8 |
| Record | 78–82 | 90–70 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs’ lineup has been carrying pace with a 6.8 RPG clip over the last five games, making this matchup analysis against the Cardinals a high-value betting angle. St. Louis has split their last 10 contests at 5-5 while producing 4.4 RPG, but their 34-45 road record underlines persistent inconsistency away from home. With the Cubs showing stronger season-long stability and offensive firepower, this MLB prediction points toward a home side that continues to generate runs at a higher rate and forces the total upward.
Game Time
Scheduled for Saturday, September 27 at 02:20 PM ET at iconic Wrigley Field, wind dictates the number.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +150
- Chicago Cubs: -169
Total: 9.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-135)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+115)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 78-82 (Win %: 0.487)
Chicago Cubs: 90-70 (Win %: 0.562)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.292 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.287 AVG, 19 HR, 66 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.244 AVG, 30 HR, 101 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.257 AVG, 32 HR, 86 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.245 AVG, 30 HR, 93 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter at 78-82 overall with a 34-45 road record, highlighting their struggles away from home. Their last 5 games show a 3-2 mark with 4.8 RPG, a neutral trend that reflects inconsistency rather than momentum. Alec Burleson has provided steady contact, but the team’s inability to translate that into consistent road wins limits their betting appeal.
Over the last 10 games, the Cardinals are 5-5 with 4.4 RPG, which reinforces their middling offensive rhythm. Ivan Herrera has added some punch, but the lineup lacks sustained balance, particularly when traveling. Willson Contreras has been productive, yet the lack of consistent team-wide scoring leaves St. Louis vulnerable against a Cubs side that punishes mistakes.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 686
- Home Runs: 146
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.379
- OPS: 0.694
- ERA: 4.28
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-45 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.4 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs stand at 90-70 with a 48-31 home record, a decisive edge that reinforces their betting value. Despite a 2-3 mark over the last 5, they’ve averaged 6.8 RPG, showing that their offense continues to generate runs even in losses. Seiya Suzuki’s power production has been a difference-maker, giving the Cubs a reliable run-driving presence in the heart of the lineup.
Across their last 10 games, the Cubs are 4-6 with 5.3 RPG, which still surpasses the Cardinals’ output and reflects a more dynamic offense. Michael Busch has provided consistent production, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has added balance with timely hitting. With their ability to score at volume and a strong home-field profile, Chicago projects as the superior side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 784
- Home Runs: 218
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 48-31
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago Cubs lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 26, 2025: STL 1 @ CHC 12
- August 10, 2025: CHC 2 @ STL 3
- August 09, 2025: CHC 9 @ STL 1
- August 08, 2025: CHC 0 @ STL 5
- July 06, 2025: STL 0 @ CHC 11
- July 05, 2025: STL 8 @ CHC 6
- July 04, 2025: STL 3 @ CHC 11
- June 26, 2025: CHC 3 @ STL 0
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.5 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.5.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 9.4 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ 48-31 home record combined with a 6.8 RPG average over their last five games underlines why they are the superior side against a Cardinals team that has struggled on the road. With recent head-to-head dominance and impact bats like Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch driving production, Chicago holds every meaningful edge in this matchup.
Form and matchup edges favor the Chicago Cubs — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Chicago Cubs have produced 6.8 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals 4.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 11.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.5. That points toward the Over 9.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetRivers, BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 27, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
