MLB Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds (Sunday, August 17 at 01:40 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers enter this matchup analysis riding a 10-game winning streak, averaging 7.5 runs per contest across that span, a surge that immediately signals betting value. Cincinnati has hovered around .500 in its last 10, producing a modest 4.7 runs per game, which pales in comparison to Milwaukee Brewers’ explosive pace. With this kind of disparity in form and run production, the board leans heavily toward the Brewers and an Over outcome on the posted total.
Game Time
Taking place at Sunday, August 17 at 01:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- Milwaukee Brewers: -115
- Cincinnati Reds: -105
Total: 9
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+146)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-176)
Latest Team Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 77-44 (Win %: 0.636)
Cincinnati Reds: 64-59 (Win %: 0.52)
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers are missing Rob Zastryzny (Ribs), listed as 15-Day-IL.
The Cincinnati Reds are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.272 AVG, 25 HR, 86 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.276 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.277 AVG, 12 HR, 57 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.276 AVG, 19 HR, 76 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.309 AVG, 9 HR, 36 RBI
- Noelvi Marte: 0.289 AVG, 8 HR, 36 RBI
Team Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are peaking at precisely the right time, with a 5-0 stretch that has generated 10.0 runs per game, underscoring both their offensive depth and relentless approach. Christian Yelich continues to anchor the lineup, while Jackson Chourio has added balance with timely power. On the road, Milwaukee Brewers’ 35-24 record reinforces their ability to travel well, and their run production has been even more pronounced away from home.
Momentum is absolute with a 10-0 run across their last 10 games, showing no signs of regression. Brice Turang’s contributions have kept the lower half of the order productive, creating length in the lineup that forces opposing pitchers into mistakes. With pitching stability complementing an offense that is punishing every mistake, the Brewers have established themselves as the superior betting side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.26
- Total Runs Scored: 630
- Home Runs: 130
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.409
- OPS: 0.742
- ERA: 3.63
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 35-24 • Home Record: 42-20
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (10.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 10-0 (7.5 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds sit at 64-59 overall, showing flashes of offensive capability but lacking the consistency of their opponent. Their last 5 games at 3-2 with 7.4 runs per game highlight that scoring is present, but not sustained enough to dominate. Elly De La Cruz has been the most reliable run producer, yet the surrounding lineup has not matched his pace often enough.
At home, Cincinnati Reds’ 35-28 record demonstrates competence, but their last 10 games at 5-5 with just 4.7 runs per game reveal inconsistency. Miguel Andujar has been a steady contributor, and Noelvi Marte has provided additional spark, but the Reds have not matched Milwaukee Brewers’ relentless pressure. Against a surging Brewers squad, their current rhythm does not inspire confidence in a betting context.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 562
- Home Runs: 122
- OBP: 0.319
- SLG: 0.39
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 29-31 • Home Record: 35-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (7.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Milwaukee Brewers lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- August 15, 2025: MIL 10 @ CIN 8
- June 04, 2025: MIL 9 @ CIN 1
- June 03, 2025: MIL 2 @ CIN 4
- June 02, 2025: MIL 3 @ CIN 2
- April 06, 2025: CIN 2 @ MIL 8
Over/Under Trends
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.8 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Brewers’ 10-game winning streak, dominant run production, and 4–1 edge in recent head-to-head contests point to a decisive edge. Their road success and the impact of consistent contributors like Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio give them a proven formula that Cincinnati has not matched. Everything aligns for Milwaukee to control this game from start to finish.
We’re backing the Milwaukee Brewers — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Cincinnati Reds are at 7.4 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers at 10.0 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 17.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward a Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Fanatics, Caesars.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 17, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
