Introduction

More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee enters this matchup analysis with a strong 87-55 record and a steady 5-5 mark over the last 10 games, showing balanced production at 4.4 runs per outing. Pittsburgh sits at 64-78 overall and has averaged only 3.9 runs across its last 10, underscoring a limited offensive ceiling. With Milwaukee holding a 7–1 edge in the series, this MLB prediction points clearly toward the Brewers maintaining control while the scoring pace keeps the total in check.

Game Time

On tap at Sunday, September 7 at 01:35 PM ET at PNC Park, a slight under lean from the park profile.

Odds & Spread Line

• Milwaukee Brewers: -175
• Pittsburgh Pirates: +138

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+112)
• Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-130)

Latest Team Records

Milwaukee Brewers: 87-55 (Win %: 0.613)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 64-78 (Win %: 0.451)

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers are missing Connor Thomas (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Garrett Mitchell (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Milwaukee Brewers

• Christian Yelich: 0.268 AVG, 27 HR, 92 RBI
• Brice Turang: 0.292 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI
• Jackson Chourio: 0.276 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Bryan Reynolds: 0.245 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI
• Tommy Pham: 0.264 AVG, 8 HR, 49 RBI
• Andrew McCutchen: 0.243 AVG, 13 HR, 52 RBI

Team Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers’ 3-2 stretch over the last five games reflects stability, with 4.6 runs per game showing offensive consistency even against varied pitching. Christian Yelich continues to be the tone-setter for timely production, while the supporting cast has kept pressure on opposing staffs. Their 42-29 road record confirms the Brewers’ ability to carry that rhythm away from home, giving them a clear edge in this setting.

Brice Turang’s steady contributions and Jackson Chourio’s balanced run production have added depth, ensuring the lineup stays effective even when top hitters are contained. The team’s 5-5 record in the last 10 games demonstrates resilience rather than volatility, with consistent scoring output above four runs. Milwaukee Brewers’ combination of road form and lineup depth makes them the more reliable side to back here.

• Batting Average: 0.259
• Total Runs Scored: 722
• Home Runs: 152
• OBP: 0.332
• SLG: 0.407
• OPS: 0.74
• ERA: 3.62
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 42-29 • Home Record: 46-26
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.4 RPG)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates’ 3-2 mark over the last five games shows they have been competitive, but their 4.0 runs per game output remains modest. Bryan Reynolds has been a steady contributor, yet the lack of consistent run support limits their ability to keep pace with stronger lineups. Their 42-32 home record adds some stability, but it has not been enough to elevate them against Milwaukee Brewers’ more complete profile.

Tommy Pham’s recent involvement provides some offensive spark, while Andrew McCutchen adds experience, though the overall lineup has struggled to string together high-scoring games. Six wins in their last 10 indicate some fight, yet the offense remains capped below elite production levels. Against a disciplined Milwaukee unit, the Pirates’ home edge is outweighed by their inability to generate consistent offense.

• Batting Average: 0.234
• Total Runs Scored: 519
• Home Runs: 102
• OBP: 0.307
• SLG: 0.352
• OPS: 0.66
• ERA: 3.87
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 22-47 • Home Record: 42-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (3.9 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Milwaukee Brewers lead 7–1 (Last 8 games)

• September 06, 2025: MIL 4 @ PIT 1
• September 05, 2025: MIL 5 @ PIT 2
• August 13, 2025: PIT 5 @ MIL 12
• August 12, 2025: PIT 0 @ MIL 14
• August 11, 2025: PIT 1 @ MIL 7
• June 25, 2025: PIT 2 @ MIL 4
• June 24, 2025: PIT 3 @ MIL 9
• June 23, 2025: PIT 5 @ MIL 4

Over/Under Trends

Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers’ dominance in the head-to-head series, paired with a superior road record and consistent scoring pace above four runs per game, establishes them as the clear moneyline side. With Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Jackson Chourio providing reliable production, Milwaukee Brewers’ depth outmatches Pittsburgh Pirates’ limited attack and positions them to extend their control in this matchup.

The Milwaukee Brewers are the sharp side on form and splits.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Pittsburgh Pirates have produced 4.0 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers 4.6. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Fanatics, Caesars.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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