MLB Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Friday, September 5 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -159 | +130 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (105) | +1.5 (-125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Record | 86–54 | 63–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 stretch in their last five games, averaging 5.8 runs per contest, while the Brewers have been stuck in a 2-3 skid producing 4.4 runs per outing. That gap in recent scoring rhythm highlights why Pittsburgh carries the sharper form edge despite a weaker overall record. With Milwaukee showing only neutral momentum across their last 10, the offensive surge from Pittsburgh gives this MLB prediction a clear direction toward the home side and an elevated scoring environment.
Game Time
Game time: Friday, September 5 at 06:40 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Milwaukee Brewers: -159
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +130
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+105)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-125)
Latest Team Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 86-54 (Win %: 0.614)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 63-77 (Win %: 0.45)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.268 AVG, 27 HR, 92 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.291 AVG, 17 HR, 70 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.28 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.247 AVG, 13 HR, 52 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.264 AVG, 8 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers’ 2-3 record across the last five games signals inconsistency, with the offense averaging 4.4 runs per contest. That level of production is serviceable but far from dominant, especially when paired with a neutral 5-5 mark over the last 10. Christian Yelich has been reliable, yet the lineup has lacked the sustained pressure needed to consistently back up their strong season record.
On the road, their 40-29 mark shows competence, but recent form suggests a team struggling to string together wins away from home. Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have added balance, but the overall rhythm is uneven at a time when sharper execution is required. With Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense heating up, Milwaukee Brewers’ recent dips make them a vulnerable favorite in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 717
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.409
- OPS: 0.742
- ERA: 3.65
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 40-29 • Home Record: 46-26
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.1 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has surged with a 4-1 record in their last five games, powered by 5.8 runs per outing. That offensive pace, combined with a 7-3 mark over the last 10, shows a team finding rhythm at the right time. Bryan Reynolds has been central to that push, giving them a reliable bat to set the tone early in games.
The Pirates’ 42-30 home record adds another layer of confidence, as they have consistently produced stronger results at PNC Park. Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham have provided timely contributions, keeping the lineup balanced and difficult to pitch around. This combination of hot form and home-field consistency makes Pittsburgh the sharper side despite trailing in season win percentage.
- Batting Average: 0.234
- Total Runs Scored: 512
- Home Runs: 102
- OBP: 0.308
- SLG: 0.353
- OPS: 0.661
- ERA: 3.88
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 22-47 • Home Record: 42-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Milwaukee Brewers lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- August 13, 2025: PIT 5 @ MIL 12
- August 12, 2025: PIT 0 @ MIL 14
- August 11, 2025: PIT 1 @ MIL 7
- June 25, 2025: PIT 2 @ MIL 4
- June 24, 2025: PIT 3 @ MIL 9
- June 23, 2025: PIT 5 @ MIL 4
- May 25, 2025: MIL 6 @ PIT 5
- May 24, 2025: MIL 1 @ PIT 2
Over/Under Trends
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent 7-3 stretch combined with a 42-30 home record makes them the sharper side against a Milwaukee team that has only split its last 10. With Bryan Reynolds driving the offense and Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham providing depth, the Pirates’ current scoring pace outstrips Milwaukee Brewers’ inconsistency, making them the assertive moneyline selection.
Mismatch vs perception: the Pittsburgh Pirates at +130 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Pittsburgh Pirates have produced 5.8 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers 4.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, Bovada, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 05, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
