MLB Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres (Wednesday, September 24 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +118 | -145 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (156) |
| Last 5 RPG | 1.8 | 5.0 |
| Record | 95–62 | 86–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel +2 more | ||
More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres
Milwaukee enters this matchup analysis on the back of a 1-4 stretch with just 1.8 runs per game, a slump that sharp bettors must weigh against their season-long consistency. San Diego has been stronger of late, but the Brewers’ deeper season metrics and balanced offensive core give them the sharper edge when evaluating this MLB prediction. With both clubs carrying strong pitching numbers, the matchup sets up as a disciplined, low-scoring contest where Milwaukee Brewers’ ability to grind out tight games becomes decisive.
Game Time
On tap at Wednesday, September 24 at 04:10 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- Milwaukee Brewers: +118
- San Diego Padres: -145
Total: 8
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+156)
Latest Team Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 95-62 (Win %: 0.605)
San Diego Padres: 86-71 (Win %: 0.548)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.266 AVG, 29 HR, 102 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.286 AVG, 18 HR, 77 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.272 AVG, 20 HR, 77 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.274 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.282 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.267 AVG, 23 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ 95 wins underscore a campaign defined by consistency, even as their last 5 games at 1-4 with 1.8 runs per game highlight a temporary scoring slump. Christian Yelich has delivered run production all season, keeping the lineup competitive even when the offense dips. On the road, their 44-36 record shows an ability to win in tough venues, a key factor in projecting value against San Diego.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio bring balance to the order, giving Milwaukee multiple run creators beyond Yelich. Their 5-5 mark in the last 10 games with 4.3 RPG reflects a team that steadies itself quickly, making the current downturn look more like a blip than a pattern. With a pitching staff holding opponents down consistently, Milwaukee Brewers’ profile points toward a bounce-back performance and a strong underdog play.
- Batting Average: 0.26
- Total Runs Scored: 794
- Home Runs: 163
- OBP: 0.334
- SLG: 0.406
- OPS: 0.74
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 44-36 • Home Record: 51-27
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (1.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.3 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 7-3 record across their last 10 games with 5.6 RPG reflects a lineup currently in rhythm, led by Manny Machado’s consistent run production. Their 4-1 mark in the last 5 games with 5.0 RPG adds to the sense of short-term momentum. At home, a 49-28 record shows dominance in San Diego, making them appear the safer pick on surface numbers.
Ramon Laureano has added steady offensive output, while Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to provide extra-base power. Yet despite their recent surge, the Padres’ season scoring total sits well behind Milwaukee Brewers’, exposing a ceiling that flattens against elite pitching. In a low-total environment, their offense faces pressure to sustain production, leaving them more vulnerable than their recent streak suggests.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 670
- Home Runs: 143
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 3.67
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 38-43 • Home Record: 49-28
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- September 23, 2025: MIL 0 @ SD 7
- September 22, 2025: MIL 4 @ SD 5
- June 08, 2025: SD 1 @ MIL 0
- June 07, 2025: SD 3 @ MIL 4
- June 06, 2025: SD 2 @ MIL 0
Over/Under Trends
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Despite San Diego Padres’ recent streak, Milwaukee Brewers’ superior season run production and proven road resilience tilt the matchup in their favor. With Yelich, Turang, and Chourio anchoring the order and their pitching staff suppressing runs effectively, the Brewers project as the sharper moneyline side to back in this contest.
The Milwaukee Brewers at +118 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the San Diego Padres have produced 5.0 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers 1.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, BetRivers, BetMGM, DraftKings.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 24, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
