MLB Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres (Monday, September 22 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (175) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Record | 95–60 | 84–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Caesars +5 more | ||
More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres
Milwaukee enters this matchup analysis riding a 6-4 mark in their last 10 games, averaging 5.0 runs per contest during that stretch, a level of consistency that gives them an edge against San Diego. The Padres have also posted a 6-4 record in their last 10, but the Brewers’ steadier offensive rhythm has been more reliable when adjusting for venue splits. With both teams combining for over eight runs per game recently, this MLB prediction points directly toward Milwaukee Brewers’ ability to generate enough offense to secure the moneyline while pushing the total past the posted number.
Game Time
On tap at Monday, September 22 at 09:40 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- Milwaukee Brewers: +105
- San Diego Padres: -125
Total: 7
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-210)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+175)
Latest Team Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 95-60 (Win %: 0.613)
San Diego Padres: 84-71 (Win %: 0.542)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.266 AVG, 29 HR, 100 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.286 AVG, 18 HR, 77 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.277 AVG, 20 HR, 76 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.276 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.282 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.266 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
Team Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have gone 3-2 in their last 5 games, showing enough offensive stability to stay in control late. Their 6-4 run across the last 10 contests has been powered by a balanced attack, highlighted by Christian Yelich’s steady production in the middle of the order. With a 44-34 road record, Milwaukee has proven they can travel and still generate offense in ballparks that often suppress scoring.
Brice Turang’s ability to contribute timely hits and Jackson Chourio’s consistency give Milwaukee multiple outlets for run creation, keeping pressure on opposing pitching staffs. Recent scoring of 3.8 RPG in the last 5 may seem modest, but the 5.0 RPG stretch over the last 10 confirms their ability to lift totals. Their combination of road competence and depth across the lineup makes them the sharper side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.261
- Total Runs Scored: 789
- Home Runs: 163
- OBP: 0.334
- SLG: 0.409
- OPS: 0.743
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 44-34 • Home Record: 51-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.0 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres have matched Milwaukee Brewers’ 3-2 record in their last 5 games, averaging 4.2 RPG in that span. Manny Machado has been a central figure, keeping their run production competitive in recent weeks. Despite strong home splits at 47-28, their inconsistency against high-caliber opponents keeps them vulnerable when facing a surging Milwaukee lineup.
Ramon Laureano has added balance to the offense, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has provided additional power, yet the Padres’ overall scoring profile remains streak-driven. Their 6-4 record across the last 10 shows competence, but not dominance, leaving them less reliable as a betting side compared to Milwaukee Brewers’ steadier numbers. Playing at home does not neutralize the fact that the Brewers have been more efficient in converting scoring chances recently.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 662
- Home Runs: 141
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.69
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 38-43 • Home Record: 47-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- June 08, 2025: SD 1 @ MIL 0
- June 07, 2025: SD 3 @ MIL 4
- June 06, 2025: SD 2 @ MIL 0
Over/Under Trends
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Brewers’ combination of a 44-34 road record and consistent run production over their last 10 games makes them the more trustworthy side. With Yelich, Turang, and Chourio anchoring an offense that consistently generates traffic, Milwaukee is positioned to outperform San Diego Padres’ streak-based output and deliver as the sharper moneyline play.
The Milwaukee Brewers at +105 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the San Diego Padres have produced 4.2 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers 3.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Over 7.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
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What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 22, 2025)?
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