Introduction

More MLB picks: Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs

The Brewers enter this matchup analysis with a 7-3 run over their last 10 games, displaying reliable scoring balance while the Cubs have averaged just 2.7 runs per game across the same span. Milwaukee Brewers’ ability to generate consistent offense on the road contrasts with Chicago Cubs’ recent inconsistency at the plate, despite their strong overall record. With both clubs leaning on disciplined pitching and recent trends pointing toward lower scoring, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Brewers and a tight game that plays Under the number.

Game Time

Slated for Thursday, August 21 at 02:20 PM ET inside Wrigley Field, totals move with the breeze.

Odds & Spread Line

• Milwaukee Brewers: +123
• Chicago Cubs: -147

Total: 7

• Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-192)
• Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+159)

Latest Team Records

Milwaukee Brewers: 79-47 (Win %: 0.627)
Chicago Cubs: 72-54 (Win %: 0.571)

Injury Report

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Chicago Cubs are missing Eli Morgan (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Milwaukee Brewers

• Christian Yelich: 0.265 AVG, 26 HR, 87 RBI
• Jackson Chourio: 0.276 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI
• Brice Turang: 0.279 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI

Chicago Cubs

• Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.259 AVG, 27 HR, 79 RBI
• Seiya Suzuki: 0.247 AVG, 27 HR, 86 RBI
• Michael Busch: 0.258 AVG, 24 HR, 70 RBI

Team Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ 79-47 record reinforces why they remain one of the most reliable moneyline sides in the National League. Their last 10 games at 7-3 highlight sustained offensive rhythm, even with a modest 2-3 mark in the last five suggesting recent volatility. Christian Yelich’s production has provided a stabilizing presence, and the lineup has shown balance around him with timely contributions from younger bats.

On the road, Milwaukee Brewers’ 37-28 record proves they handle travel well, a crucial factor against a Cubs team that thrives at home. Jackson Chourio’s steady output has kept run production from dipping, while Brice Turang’s consistency adds depth that challenges opposing pitchers. Even with a recent 4.0 runs per game average in their last five, the Brewers’ ceiling remains higher, making them the sharper side in this matchup.

• Batting Average: 0.258
• Total Runs Scored: 650
• Home Runs: 135
• OBP: 0.332
• SLG: 0.406
• OPS: 0.738
• ERA: 3.58
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 37-28 • Home Record: 42-20
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (7.0 RPG)

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ 72-54 record makes clear a strong season, but their last 10 games at 5-5 with only 2.7 runs per game reveal an offense that has stalled. Even with a 4-1 stretch in the most recent five, that production sits at 3.4 runs per game, signaling they are winning more with pitching than scoring bursts. Pete Crow-Armstrong has carried much of the offensive load, but the lack of consistent lineup-wide support caps their upside.

At home, Chicago Cubs’ 41-24 record is impressive, yet recent scoring inconsistency makes them vulnerable against a road-tested Milwaukee unit. Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch provide some power, but the inability to string together high-scoring outputs has limited their efficiency. Against a disciplined Brewers staff, the Cubs’ reliance on a few hot bats rather than depth leaves them in a weaker betting position.

• Batting Average: 0.25
• Total Runs Scored: 624
• Home Runs: 172
• OBP: 0.319
• SLG: 0.429
• OPS: 0.748
• ERA: 3.81
• WHIP: 1.21

Away Record: 32-30 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (2.7 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Chicago Cubs lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)

• August 20, 2025: MIL 3 @ CHC 4
• August 19, 2025: MIL 1 @ CHC 4
• August 19, 2025: MIL 4 @ CHC 6
• August 18, 2025: MIL 7 @ CHC 0
• July 30, 2025: CHC 10 @ MIL 3

Over/Under Trends

Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.8 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.

Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 5.7 combined runs, with 1 game clearing the same number of 7.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Brewers’ steadier offensive rhythm across their last 10 and proven ability to win on the road make them the sharper side against a Cubs team that has leaned on pitching to mask a sputtering lineup. Milwaukee Brewers’ balance with Yelich driving production and strong contributions from Chourio and Turang gives them the depth needed to exploit Chicago Cubs’ recent offensive inconsistency. The combination of form, situational edge, and lineup balance makes Milwaukee the clear moneyline play.

We’re backing the Milwaukee Brewers at +123 as the value side.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Chicago Cubs have produced 3.4 RPG and the Milwaukee Brewers 4.0. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 7.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Under 7.0.

Bookmakers

You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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