MLB Prediction: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies (Friday, August 29 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (120) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.4 | 6.0 |
| Record | 61–72 | 76–57 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ 43-22 home record against Atlanta Braves’ 28-40 road mark sets a decisive tone for this MLB prediction, and the recent 19-4 blowout further emphasizes the gap. Across their last 10, the Braves have averaged 6.2 runs while the Phillies sit at 6.9, creating a high-scoring environment that aligns with aggressive offensive form. With both sides trending toward elevated totals, the value in this matchup tilts toward a confident lean on Philadelphia and the Over.
Game Time
This one goes at Friday, August 29 at 06:45 PM ET inside Citizens Bank Park, short porches boost extra-base damage.
Odds & Spread Line
- Atlanta Braves: +145
- Philadelphia Phillies: -175
Total: 9
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-140)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+120)
Latest Team Records
Atlanta Braves: 61-72 (Win %: 0.459)
Philadelphia Phillies: 76-57 (Win %: 0.571)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.265 AVG, 20 HR, 74 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.251 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI
- Ronald Acuna Jr.: 0.301 AVG, 15 HR, 31 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.243 AVG, 45 HR, 110 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.297 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.267 AVG, 21 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Atlanta Braves
The Braves’ 61-72 record reflects a season stuck below .500, and their 28-40 road mark reinforces the lack of consistency away from home. With a last 5 games line of 3-2 (6.4 RPG), the offense has produced runs but without the stability needed to translate into steady wins. Matt Olson brings power in the middle of the lineup, but the overall rhythm on the road limits the Braves’ ability to close out high-pressure games.
Over the last 10 games at 5-5 (6.2 RPG), the Braves have hovered around average output, with Ronald Acuna Jr. providing steady production but not lifting the team above mediocrity. Michael Harris II has chipped in offensively, yet the group’s inability to sustain rallies has capped their upside. Against a superior home team like Philadelphia, Atlanta Braves’ away struggles make them a risky moneyline side despite occasional bursts of scoring.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 594
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.396
- OPS: 0.717
- ERA: 4.33
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 28-40 • Home Record: 33-33
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (6.2 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 76-57 record and dominant 43-22 home form show a club that thrives in its own park, where offensive depth consistently overwhelms opponents. Their last 5 games sit at 2-3 (6.0 RPG), but the scoring pace remains strong, highlighted by Kyle Schwarber’s power production that stretches any pitching staff thin. Even when losses occur, the run output signals that the offense is rarely shut down fully.
Over the last 10 games (6-4, 6.9 RPG), the Phillies have maintained a winning rhythm while posting totals that support confidence in their lineup. Trea Turner’s ability to get on base and Bryce Harper’s balanced production create matchup advantages that punish weaker pitching. Against an Atlanta team with shaky road results, Philadelphia Phillies’ offensive consistency and home dominance make them the clear side to trust.
- Batting Average: 0.256
- Total Runs Scored: 625
- Home Runs: 161
- OBP: 0.326
- SLG: 0.42
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 34-35 • Home Record: 43-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 28, 2025: ATL 4 @ PHI 19
- June 29, 2025: PHI 2 @ ATL 1
- June 28, 2025: PHI 1 @ ATL 6
- June 27, 2025: PHI 13 @ ATL 0
- May 29, 2025: ATL 9 @ PHI 3
- May 29, 2025: ATL 4 @ PHI 5
- May 27, 2025: ATL 0 @ PHI 2
- April 10, 2025: PHI 2 @ ATL 4
Over/Under Trends
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 13.3 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 12.2 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ superior 43-22 home record, their 6-4 mark over the last 10, and a decisive 19-4 head-to-head win all point to control in this matchup. With Kyle Schwarber delivering elite power and Trea Turner setting the table, the Phillies’ offense is built to overwhelm Atlanta Braves’ weaker road profile, making them the definitive moneyline side.
Form and matchup edges favor the Philadelphia Phillies — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Philadelphia Phillies at 6.0 RPG and the Atlanta Braves at 6.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 12.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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