Introduction

New York Mets’ dominant 39-21 home record sets the tone for this MLB prediction, especially against an Atlanta squad that has struggled on the road at 21-38. The Mets have taken three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 13-run output in their latest matchup, highlighting their ability to produce runs in bunches. With both teams averaging over 5 runs per game in their last five contests, the offensive environment points to a high-scoring affair where New York Mets’ home edge is decisive.

Game Time

First pitch comes at Wednesday, August 13 at 07:10 PM ET in pitcher-leaning Citi Field with muted carry.

Odds & Spread Line

• Atlanta Braves: +165
• New York Mets: -213

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-125)
• Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+105)

Latest Team Records

Atlanta Braves: 51-67 (Win %: 0.432)
New York Mets: 63-55 (Win %: 0.534)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Atlanta Braves

• Matt Olson: 0.262 AVG, 19 HR, 70 RBI
• Austin Riley: 0.26 AVG, 16 HR, 54 RBI
• Ronald Acuna Jr.: 0.306 AVG, 14 HR, 26 RBI

New York Mets

• Pete Alonso: 0.264 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
• Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 28 HR, 67 RBI
• Francisco Lindor: 0.243 AVG, 21 HR, 64 RBI

Team Analysis

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves’ 3-2 mark over the last five games with 5.6 runs per game shows they can generate offense in short bursts, but their season-long inconsistency on the road remains a liability. With a 21-38 away record, they have repeatedly failed to sustain scoring against quality home teams, making this setting a challenge. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s on-base skills and Matt Olson’s power give them threats, yet translating that into sustained production away from home has been elusive.

The Braves’ 5-5 split over the last 10 games reflects a middling rhythm, and their inability to limit damage in hostile environments often forces them into high-variance scenarios. Austin Riley’s extra-base potential adds depth, but defensive and pitching lapses on the road have negated offensive output. Against a Mets lineup that has punished them in recent meetings, Atlanta faces a steep climb to dictate pace.

• Batting Average: 0.242
• Total Runs Scored: 499
• Home Runs: 133
• OPS: 0.71
• ERA: 4.21
• WHIP: 1.28

Away Record: 21-38 • Home Record: 30-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)

---

New York Mets

Despite a 1-4 record in their last five games, the Mets have maintained a 5.2 RPG pace, signaling that run production has not been the issue. Their 39-21 home record underscores a consistent advantage in this venue, where Pete Alonso’s power and Francisco Lindor’s timely hitting have translated into multi-run innings. The recent losses stem more from run prevention lapses than from offensive shortcomings, which is less concerning against a Braves team that has struggled on the road.

Over the last 10 games, New York Mets’ 2-8 record masks the fact they have averaged 5.3 runs per game, showing the lineup remains dangerous. Juan Soto’s ability to reach base and extend innings has been a catalyst in keeping their scoring floor high. With the Braves’ pitching staff vulnerable in away settings, the Mets’ balanced attack is well-positioned to convert scoring chances into a decisive home win.

• Batting Average: 0.239
• Total Runs Scored: 513
• Home Runs: 147
• OPS: 0.724
• ERA: 3.7
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 25-34 • Home Record: 39-21
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (5.3 RPG)

---

Head-to-Head History

New York Mets lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 12, 2025: ATL 5 @ NYM 13
• June 26, 2025: ATL 0 @ NYM 4
• June 25, 2025: ATL 3 @ NYM 7
• June 24, 2025: ATL 7 @ NYM 4
• June 23, 2025: ATL 3 @ NYM 2

Over/Under Trends

Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.1 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

New York Mets’ overwhelming 39-21 home record, combined with three wins in the last five meetings against Atlanta, provides a clear situational edge. Their offense has consistently generated over five runs per game recently, powered by Pete Alonso’s run production and Juan Soto’s ability to get on base. Facing a Braves team that has been unreliable away from home, the Mets’ balanced scoring and proven success in this matchup make them the superior moneyline side.

We’re backing the New York Mets to handle business.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the New York Mets at 5.2 RPG and the Atlanta Braves at 5.6, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 10.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward a Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

Available at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.