MLB Prediction: Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (Monday, August 18 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
HOU @ DET
HOU +118
DET -139
O/U 8.5
| Market / Trend | HOU | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +118 | -139 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (+145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| Record | 69–54 | 73–52 |
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Updated Aug 17, 2025 11:18 PM ET Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: Houston Astros · Detroit Tigers
Houston enters this matchup analysis having averaged just 2.0 runs per game across its last five, while Detroit has generated 4.2 in the same span. That contrast highlights a clear betting preview dynamic: the Tigers have been efficient at home, but the Astros’ overall balance and recent head-to-head edge keep them dangerous. With Houston winning two of the last three meetings, the path to value lies with their ability to tighten run prevention and force a lower-scoring contest.
Game Time
Scheduled for Monday, August 18 at 06:40 PM ET inside Comerica Park, pitchers get support from the park size.
Odds & Spread Line
- Houston Astros: +118
- Detroit Tigers: -139
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-165)
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+145)
Latest Team Records
Houston Astros: 69-54 (Win %: 0.561)
Detroit Tigers: 73-52 (Win %: 0.584)
Injury Report
Houston Astros are missing Zach Dezenzo (Hand), listed as 60-Day-IL; Pedro Leon (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Detroit Tigers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.28 AVG, 22 HR, 64 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.317 AVG, 13 HR, 45 RBI
- Isaac Paredes: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 50 RBI
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.267 AVG, 28 HR, 90 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.244 AVG, 26 HR, 67 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.266 AVG, 22 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
Houston Astros
The Astros have played to a 2-3 record in their last five games while averaging only 2.0 runs per contest, a clear sign of offensive inconsistency. Yet their season win percentage of 0.561 demonstrates they remain a steady contender when their bats find rhythm. Jose Altuve has been the heartbeat of the lineup, and his ability to spark rallies is critical to overcoming recent scoring slumps.
On the road, Houston has maintained a competitive 31-28 record, showing that they can produce in hostile environments. Jeremy Pena’s consistent contact skills and Isaac Paredes’ power presence provide balance behind Altuve, creating a lineup capable of timely production. With a strong 3.77 team ERA, Houston Astros’ pitching has been reliable enough to keep games within reach, which is pivotal in tight, low-scoring affairs.
- Batting Average: 0.256
- Total Runs Scored: 530
- Home Runs: 136
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.725
- ERA: 3.77
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 31-28 • Home Record: 38-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.7 RPG)
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have surged with a 4-1 record across their last five outings, averaging 4.2 runs per game to reinforce their position at the top of the standings. Riley Greene has been the key run producer, anchoring an offense that thrives on consistent power and timely hits. Their 39-24 home record lays bare their confidence at Comerica Park, where they typically find ways to pressure opposing pitchers.
In their last 10 games, Detroit sits at 7-3 with 4.8 runs per contest, reflecting a steady offensive rhythm. Spencer Torkelson’s pop and Kerry Carpenter’s ability to drive in runs add depth behind Greene, keeping pitchers honest throughout the lineup. However, their ERA of 3.8 shows they are not substantially stronger on the mound than Houston, leaving room for the Astros to exploit tight margins in a low-scoring game.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 603
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.421
- OPS: 0.739
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 34-29 • Home Record: 39-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Houston Astros lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- April 30, 2025: DET 7 @ HOU 4
- April 29, 2025: DET 4 @ HOU 6
- April 28, 2025: DET 5 @ HOU 8
Over/Under Trends
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Despite Detroit Tigers’ recent surge, Houston Astros’ steadier season profile and proven ability to win in this matchup tilt the value toward the visitors. With Altuve driving the offense and support from Pena and Paredes, the Astros have the right mix to capitalize on tight, low-scoring conditions. Their reliable pitching staff and recent head-to-head success make them the sharper side to back for a straight-up win.
Trend and context support the Houston Astros at +118 as the bet.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Detroit Tigers have produced 4.2 RPG and the Houston Astros 2.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That leans to a Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Current odds sourced from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, Bovada, BetUS, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 18, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
