Introduction

More MLB picks: Houston Astros · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore enters this matchup analysis riding a stronger offensive rhythm, averaging 6.2 runs per game across their last five compared to Houston Astros’ 3.8. That kind of production swing puts immediate pressure on an Astros team that has dropped six of its last ten and has struggled to generate consistent output on the road. With Baltimore Orioles’ lineup finding extra-base hits and Houston Astros’ attack sputtering, this MLB prediction points squarely toward the Orioles carrying the edge and pushing this total upward.

Game Time

First pitch comes at Saturday, August 23 at 07:05 PM ET inside Camden Yards, aggressive lineups find extra bases.

Odds & Spread Line

• Houston Astros: -103
• Baltimore Orioles: -125

Total: 9

• Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-180)
• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+155)

Latest Team Records

Houston Astros: 71-58 (Win %: 0.55)
Baltimore Orioles: 59-69 (Win %: 0.461)

Injury Report

Houston Astros are missing Josh Hader (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Jake Meyers (Calf), listed as 10-Day-IL; Isaac Paredes (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Baltimore Orioles are missing Jordan Westburg (Ankle), listed as 10-Day-IL; Felix Bautista (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Houston Astros

• Jose Altuve: 0.274 AVG, 22 HR, 64 RBI
• Jeremy Pena: 0.306 AVG, 13 HR, 45 RBI
• Isaac Paredes: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 50 RBI

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.28 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.247 AVG, 15 HR, 48 RBI

Team Analysis

Houston Astros

The Astros have slipped to a 2-3 mark across their last five games and just 4-6 over the last ten, reflecting a lineup that has not been able to sustain pressure consistently. Their recent road form is middling, and averaging only 2.9 runs per game across the past ten highlights an attack that has lacked rhythm. Even with Jose Altuve anchoring production, the broader order has not been translating opportunities into runs.

Jeremy Pena has shown flashes of efficiency, but Houston Astros’ overall offensive profile remains uneven, especially when traveling. The recent run totals demonstrate inconsistency, and when combined with shaky situational hitting, the Astros enter Baltimore without the momentum that bettors look for in a road side. That makes their outlook less convincing against a home team finding more consistent scoring lanes.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 539
• Home Runs: 139
• OBP: 0.318
• SLG: 0.399
• OPS: 0.717
• ERA: 3.87
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 33-31 • Home Record: 38-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.9 RPG)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have taken three of their last five and six of their last ten, and more importantly they are averaging 6.2 runs per game in the recent stretch. That kind of offensive consistency, especially at home, signals a lineup generating pressure on opposing pitchers. Gunnar Henderson has been central to that surge, with his run production sparking a group that is consistently pushing totals upward.

Jackson Holliday has added further balance to Baltimore Orioles’ attack, giving them another reliable source of run creation. The Orioles’ home record sits close to .500, but recent scoring form at Camden Yards has been strong enough to offset pitching volatility. With their bats producing at this pace, Baltimore carries the momentum and has the situational edge entering this contest.

• Batting Average: 0.24
• Total Runs Scored: 549
• Home Runs: 152
• OBP: 0.305
• SLG: 0.403
• OPS: 0.709
• ERA: 4.66
• WHIP: 1.38

Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 30-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.1 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Houston Astros lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 22, 2025: HOU 10 @ BAL 7
• August 21, 2025: HOU 7 @ BAL 2
• August 17, 2025: BAL 12 @ HOU 0
• August 16, 2025: BAL 4 @ HOU 5
• August 15, 2025: BAL 7 @ HOU 0

Over/Under Trends

Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 9.4 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Baltimore Orioles’ recent offensive surge, highlighted by 6.2 runs per game across their last five, makes them the more reliable side compared to Houston Astros’ inconsistent road scoring. The Orioles’ lineup has been generating steady production at home, while the Astros have stumbled with just 2.9 runs per game over their last ten. With Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday driving a balanced attack, Baltimore Orioles’ current form and situational edge make them the clear moneyline play.

The Baltimore Orioles are the sharp side on form and splits.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Baltimore Orioles have produced 6.2 RPG and the Houston Astros 3.8. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.

Bookmakers

Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from this article.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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