MLB Prediction: Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays (Tuesday, September 9 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | HOU | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -145 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (137) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 7.2 |
| Record | 78–66 | 82–61 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Houston Astros · Toronto Blue Jays
Houston has taken three straight from Toronto this season, and that head-to-head dominance sets the tone for this MLB prediction. The Astros are averaging 5.6 runs across their last five games, while the Blue Jays are putting up 7.2 in the same stretch, creating a high-scoring profile that leans toward value on the Over. With Toronto’s home record strong but Houston showing the ability to travel and score, the betting edge tilts toward the Astros’ moneyline and an inflated total.
Game Time
Game time: Tuesday, September 9 at 07:05 PM ET under the roof at Rogers Centre, pace quickens on turf.
Odds & Spread Line
- Houston Astros: +130
- Toronto Blue Jays: -145
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-165)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+137)
Latest Team Records
Houston Astros: 78-66 (Win %: 0.542)
Toronto Blue Jays: 82-61 (Win %: 0.573)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.264 AVG, 24 HR, 69 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.304 AVG, 15 HR, 54 RBI
- Christian Walker: 0.234 AVG, 22 HR, 76 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 93 RBI
- George Springer: 0.301 AVG, 27 HR, 72 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.301 AVG, 23 HR, 79 RBI
Team Analysis
Houston Astros
The Astros’ 2-3 mark over their last five games shows some inconsistency, but the 5.6 runs per game in that stretch highlights a lineup that continues to generate offense. Jose Altuve’s production remains a stabilizing factor, while Jeremy Pena’s ability to extend innings adds depth to the order. On the road, a 35-34 record lays bare their competence away from home, a key angle when evaluating their moneyline value.
Over the last ten, Houston sits at 4-6 with 4.0 runs per game, but Christian Walker’s run production keeps them competitive even when hits are scattered. Their pitching staff’s 3.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP show they can keep Toronto’s bats in check long enough for the offense to create separation. With balanced contributions across their core hitters, Houston enters this matchup positioned to outperform market expectations.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 609
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.401
- OPS: 0.719
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 35-34 • Home Record: 43-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.0 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s 3-2 record in their last five games with 7.2 runs per contest shows their offense remains potent, especially at home where they are 45-24. Bo Bichette’s consistency at the plate has been a major driver of that scoring profile, giving the lineup a reliable anchor. The Blue Jays’ ability to put up runs in bunches keeps them competitive, but their recent split record signals vulnerability against teams that can match their output.
Over their last ten games, Toronto is 5-5 with 6.0 runs per outing, reinforcing their high-offense identity but also exposing some pitching leaks with a 4.24 ERA. George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continue to provide thump, but defensive efficiency has not fully supported their scoring. Against a disciplined Houston order, the Blue Jays’ reliance on offense alone makes them less appealing as the betting side despite strong home splits.
- Batting Average: 0.269
- Total Runs Scored: 715
- Home Runs: 174
- OBP: 0.338
- SLG: 0.433
- OPS: 0.771
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 45-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (6.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Houston Astros lead 3–0 (Last 3 games)
- April 23, 2025: TOR 1 @ HOU 3
- April 22, 2025: TOR 1 @ HOU 5
- April 21, 2025: TOR 0 @ HOU 7
Over/Under Trends
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 8.0 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 11.4 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Houston Astros’ recent 5.6 runs per game across their last five and a winning head-to-head sweep over Toronto this season establish them as the sharper side. With Altuve and Pena driving consistent offense and Walker supplying run production, the Astros have the balance to neutralize Toronto’s home edge and extend their control in this matchup.
Value-side alert: the Houston Astros at +130 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Toronto Blue Jays are at 7.2 RPG and the Houston Astros at 5.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 12.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, Caesars, BetMGM, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 09, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
