Introduction

Behind every betting line is a probability — the bookmaker’s best guess of how likely an outcome is to happen. As a bettor, understanding implied probability can help you identify when odds offer value — or when the price just isn’t worth it.

What Is Implied Probability?

Implied probability is the chance of an outcome occurring, as suggested by the odds. It tells you how often a bet needs to win to break even.

How to Calculate It

For American Odds:

• Negative odds (e.g., -150): – odds / (– odds + 100)
• Positive odds (e.g., +150): 100 / (odds + 100)

Example:

• -150 = 150 / (150 + 100) = 60% implied probability
• +150 = 100 / (150 + 100) = 40% implied probability

Why It Matters

Comparing your estimated probability of a bet winning to the implied probability in the odds is how you spot value. If you believe an outcome has a 55% chance but the odds imply only 45%, you’ve found an edge.

Using It Across Bet Types

• Spreads: Focus on win percentages against the number
• Totals: Estimate how often the over/under will hit
• Props & futures: Often mispriced — great for finding edges

Final Thoughts

Once you start thinking in probabilities — not just odds — your entire betting mindset changes. It’s the foundation of sharp betting and essential to beating the books over time.

FAQ

What is implied probability in sports betting?

Implied probability is the percentage chance that a sportsbook assigns to a bet, based on the odds provided. It reflects how likely the bookmaker believes an outcome is to occur.

How do I calculate implied probability?

You can convert decimal odds using the formula: Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds. For American odds, different formulas apply depending on whether the odds are positive or negative.

Why is implied probability important?

It helps bettors determine whether a wager has value. If your own estimated probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds, it may be a smart bet.

Can I use implied probability to find value bets?

Yes, by comparing your predicted chance of success with the implied probability, you can spot bets where the odds are in your favor.

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