More EPL picks: Bournemouth · Crystal Palace

Introduction

Bournemouth and Crystal Palace meet in an early-season EPL matchup defined by attacking efficiency and contrasting styles. Bournemouth’s 2.2 goals per game pace meets a Palace side that thrives on structured buildup and quick transitions. With both clubs still shaping their identities in this early-season sample, the matchup promises sustained tempo and decisive finishing moments.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 10:00 AM ET at Selhurst Park.

Odds

• Bournemouth: +220
• Crystal Palace: +120

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Bournemouth: +0.5 (-101)
Handicap — Crystal Palace: -0.5 (-115)

Latest Team Records

Bournemouth: 4-2-1 (Win %: 0.571 )
Crystal Palace: 3-3-1 (Win %: 0.429 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Bournemouth

Bournemouth’s early campaign has been defined by sharp finishing and structured possession. With 11 goals from 62 total shots and a 17.7% conversion rate, they’ve maximized efficiency in the final third while maintaining composure through nearly 3,000 passes. Their three clean sheets show defensive order, but that same discipline can be tested against Palace’s quicker passing rhythm.

The Cherries’ last five outings at 2.2 goals per game underline an attack that pushes tempo, especially at home where they’ve gone 3-1-0. Yet their away form has been more balanced at 1-1-1, suggesting vulnerability when pressed higher. That split makes this trip to Selhurst Park a genuine test of control against a side that thrives on disrupting rhythm and countering decisively.

• Goals: 11
• Total Shots: 62
• Shots on Target: 31
• Total Passes: 2978
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 16
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 15
• Shot Conversion: 17.7%
• Passes per Shot: 48.03
• Discipline: Y:16 • R:0 • Off:15

Away Record: 1-1-1 • Home Record: 3-1-0 • Last 5: 4-2-1 (2.2 GPG) • Last 10: 4-2-1 (2.2 GPG)

Bournemouth: 62 total shots (season) • 31 on target (season)

Crystal Palace

At Selhurst Park, Palace’s 1–2–0 home record reflects a mixed return, built more on control and shot quality than sheer volume. They’ve turned a modest shot count into chances by keeping attempts on frame and working through longer build-up—an approach that suits a match they can slow and manage. Conversion sits in the low teens, consistent with a side that picks its moments rather than trading chances.

Defensively, three clean sheets point to structure first, and recent output around one-and-a-half goals per game is typically enough when the game stays organized. Against Bournemouth’s possession phases, Palace can tilt territory, lean on restarts, and find their best looks from quick counters. With that profile, Crystal Palace are the right side to take the points.

• Goals: 9
• Total Shots: 68
• Shots on Target: 36
• Total Passes: 2527
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 17
• Hit Woodwork: 5
• Offsides: 9
• Shot Conversion: 13.2%
• Passes per Shot: 37.16
• Discipline: Y:17 • R:0 • Off:9

Home Record: 1-2-0 • Away Record: 2-1-1 • Last 5: 3-3-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 3-3-1 (1.5 GPG)

Crystal Palace: 68 total shots (season) • 36 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Crystal Palace’s recent matches have averaged 1.5 total goals and Bournemouth’s have averaged 2.2. Combined recent output 3.7 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Crystal Palace’s tactical precision and home composure make them the sharper side in this matchup. Their ability to dictate tempo through structured possession and quick counterplay are positioned to expose Bournemouth’s defensive transitions. Expect Palace to capitalize on their home rhythm and deliver the decisive edge.

Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.

Edge sits with Crystal Palace across form and goal threat.

Over/Under Prediction

Crystal Palace have produced 1.5 GPG and Bournemouth 2.2 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.7 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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