More EPL picks: Leeds United · Burnley

Introduction

Leeds United and Burnley collide in an early-season EPL matchup that already hints at contrasting trajectories. Leeds have averaged two goals per game in recent outings, while Burnley’s matches have trended lower but are beginning to open up. With both sides still defining their rhythm in this early-season sample, the matchup promises a sharper attacking tempo than the records suggest.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 10:00 AM ET at Turf Moor.

Odds

• Leeds United: +125
• Burnley: +230

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Leeds United: -0.5 (-106)
Handicap — Burnley: +0.5 (-110)

Latest Team Records

Leeds United: 2-2-3 (Win %: 0.286 )
Burnley: 1-1-5 (Win %: 0.143 )

Team Analysis

Leeds United

Leeds have turned possession into steady pressure, producing 57 total shots with a 12.3% conversion rate. Their 2824 total passes and nearly 50 passes per shot underline a patient build-up style that can sometimes blunt their own tempo. Two clean sheets show they can hold structure, but their balance between control and penetration remains inconsistent.

Across recent matches, Leeds have averaged two goals per game, signaling a forward line capable of exploiting space when the rhythm clicks. The home record of 1-2-1 reflects a side that competes but struggles to impose dominance for 90 minutes. Against Burnley’s compact shape, Leeds must sharpen finishing efficiency to keep pace in what are positioned to become a high-tempo exchange.

• Goals: 7
• Total Shots: 57
• Shots on Target: 24
• Total Passes: 2824
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 10
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 12.3%
• Passes per Shot: 49.54
• Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:8

Away Record: 1-0-2 • Home Record: 1-2-1 • Last 5: 2-2-3 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-3 (2.0 GPG)

Leeds United: 57 total shots (season) • 24 on target (season)

Burnley

Burnley’s attack has been selective but efficient, converting 17.5% of their 40 total shots into goals. Their 2229 passes and 55.73 passes per shot reveal a measured tempo that relies on precision rather than volume. One clean sheet shows defensive gaps remain, yet their home form—1-1-1—signals a side capable of tightening up when backed by Turf Moor’s intensity.

Recent 1.2 goals per game indicate a squad beginning to find attacking rhythm after a slow start. The woodwork has denied them three times, hinting at near-misses that can soon turn into goals. With Leeds prone to leaving channels open when pressing high, Burnley’s direct counters and finishing edge make them a dangerous home underdog ready to capitalize.

• Goals: 7
• Total Shots: 40
• Shots on Target: 18
• Total Passes: 2229
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 10
• Hit Woodwork: 3
• Offsides: 15
• Shot Conversion: 17.5%
• Passes per Shot: 55.73
• Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:15

Home Record: 1-1-1 • Away Record: 0-0-4 • Last 5: 1-1-5 (1.2 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-5 (1.2 GPG)

Burnley: 40 total shots (season) • 18 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Burnley’s recent matches have averaged 1.2 total goals and Leeds United’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 3.2 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Burnley’s sharper finishing rate and improving home form matchup this matchup their way. Leeds’ possession control can dominate periods, but Burnley’s efficiency and countering threat fit perfectly against that style. The value and tactical setup both point firmly to Burnley taking the points at Turf Moor.

Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.

Numbers back Burnley; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Burnley have produced 1.2 GPG and Leeds United 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.2 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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