More EPL picks: Newcastle United · Brighton and Hove Albion

Introduction

Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion collide in a matchup defined by consistent scoring opportunities, with both sides averaging over 1.5 goals per game in recent outings. The early-season sample already shows attacking intent from each club, signaling a contest where forward pressure outweighs defensive caution. With both teams level on record but differing in efficiency, this fixture sets up as a decisive test of composure and finishing quality.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 10:00 AM ET at Amex Stadium.

Odds

• Newcastle United: +175
• Brighton and Hove Albion: +150

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Newcastle United: 0.0 (-101)
Handicap — Brighton and Hove Albion: 0.0 (-115)

Latest Team Records

Newcastle United: 2-3-2 (Win %: 0.286 )
Brighton and Hove Albion: 2-3-2 (Win %: 0.286 )

Team Analysis

Newcastle United

Newcastle United’s attack is beginning to find rhythm, converting 11.5% of their 52 total shots for six goals. Their patience in buildup play—over 54 passes per shot—illustrates a possession-focused approach that can frustrate opponents lacking defensive structure. With five clean sheets already, their balance between control and protection gives them a strong platform to dictate tempo against Brighton’s open style.

Recent form shows steady improvement, with 1.5 goals per game across their last five and ten matches. Their home record of 2-0-2 underlines resilience, while the away slate remains a work in progress. Entering this matchup, Newcastle United’s sharper finishing and disciplined back line position them to seize momentum and convert territorial dominance into tangible points.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 52
• Shots on Target: 25
• Total Passes: 2827
• Clean Sheets: 5
• Yellow Cards: 8
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 5
• Shot Conversion: 11.5%
• Passes per Shot: 54.37
• Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:5

Away Record: 0-3-0 • Home Record: 2-0-2 • Last 5: 2-3-2 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 2-3-2 (1.5 GPG)

Newcastle United: 52 total shots (season) • 25 on target (season)

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton and Hove Albion’s attack has been more direct, producing ten goals from 64 shots with a 15.6% conversion rate. Their shorter passing rhythm—just over 42 passes per shot—keeps pressure high and encourages quick transitions, yet their 22 yellow cards suggest discipline remains a vulnerability. At home, that aggressive tempo can unsettle visitors, but it also leaves gaps for composed sides like Newcastle to exploit.

Across recent matches, Brighton have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five and 1.7 in their last ten, underscoring consistent offensive output. Their 1-2-0 home record shows they can sustain pressure but have struggled to close out matches cleanly. Against a structured opponent, that imbalance between attacking freedom and defensive control can matchup the contest away from them.

• Goals: 10
• Total Shots: 64
• Shots on Target: 30
• Total Passes: 2721
• Yellow Cards: 22
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 15
• Shot Conversion: 15.6%
• Passes per Shot: 42.52
• Discipline: Y:22 • R:0 • Off:15

Home Record: 1-2-0 • Away Record: 1-1-2 • Last 5: 2-3-2 (1.8 GPG) • Last 10: 2-3-2 (1.7 GPG)

Brighton and Hove Albion: 64 total shots (season) • 30 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Brighton and Hove Albion’s recent matches have averaged 1.7 total goals and Newcastle United’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 3.3 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Newcastle United’s defensive structure and measured possession game give them the edge over Brighton’s high-risk approach. Their ability to absorb pressure and convert at a steady clip aligns with superior value on the moneyline. Expect Newcastle to control tempo, punish transitions, and secure the decisive result.

Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.

Edge sits with Newcastle United across form and goal threat.

Over/Under Prediction

Brighton and Hove Albion have produced 1.8 GPG and Newcastle United 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.3 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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