EPL Prediction: Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, October 18 at 07:30 AM ET)
| Market / Trend | CHE | NFO |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | +270 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | -0.5 (-103) | +0.5 (-113) |
| Last 5 GPG | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Record | 3-2-2 | 1-2-4 |
| Lines: FanDuel, 1xBet, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Chelsea · Nottingham Forest
Introduction
Chelsea’s early-season matches have averaged over two goals per game, signaling a clear attacking rhythm even within a limited sample size. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, continue to struggle for efficiency in front of goal, exposing a gap that Chelsea’s sharper finishing can exploit. With both teams trending toward open games, this fixture projects as another high-tempo Premier League matchup.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 07:30 AM ET at City Ground.
Odds
- Chelsea: -105
- Nottingham Forest: +270
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Chelsea: -0.5 (-103)
Handicap — Nottingham Forest: +0.5 (-113)
Latest Team Records
Chelsea: 3-2-2 (Win %: 0.429 )
Nottingham Forest: 1-2-4 (Win %: 0.143 )
Team Analysis
Chelsea
Chelsea’s 13 goals from 57 total shots underscore a strong 22.8% conversion rate, reflecting a squad that turns possession into end product efficiently. Their 3737 passes show a patient buildup, but the 65.56 passes per shot ratio also highlights a calculated approach rather than reckless volume. With two clean sheets already, Chelsea balance control and aggression effectively, setting a clear upper hand against a less clinical opponent.
Recent form reinforces that efficiency, with 2.2 goals per game across both the last five and ten-match splits. The home record of 2-1-1 complements their solid away balance, making them reliable in multiple environments. Given their attacking consistency and discipline, Chelsea enter this matchup poised to dictate tempo and sustain pressure for a decisive result.
- Goals: 13
- Total Shots: 57
- Shots on Target: 32
- Total Passes: 3737
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 15
- Hit Woodwork: 3
- Offsides: 15
- Shot Conversion: 22.8%
- Passes per Shot: 65.56
- Discipline: Y:15 • R:0 • Off:15
Away Record: 1-1-1 • Home Record: 2-1-1 • Last 5: 3-2-2 (2.2 GPG) • Last 10: 3-2-2 (2.2 GPG)
Chelsea: 57 total shots (season) • 32 on target (season)
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s 8.9% shot conversion and five total goals reveal a side struggling to turn possession into tangible threat. Despite 3542 passes, their attack often stalls before the final third, lacking the incisive edge seen in higher-tier sides. At home they’ve managed one win in three, but inconsistency in finishing continues to limit their ceiling against stronger opposition.
Their recent 1.7 goals per game average signals slight improvement, yet defensive gaps persist with limited clean-sheet control. With discipline steady but intensity uneven, Forest remain vulnerable when forced to chase the game. Hosting Chelsea will demand sharper execution, but current metrics show they’re more likely to absorb pressure than dictate play.
- Goals: 5
- Total Shots: 56
- Shots on Target: 28
- Total Passes: 3542
- Yellow Cards: 14
- Hit Woodwork: 2
- Offsides: 8
- Shot Conversion: 8.9%
- Passes per Shot: 63.25
- Discipline: Y:14 • R:0 • Off:8
Home Record: 1-0-2 • Away Record: 0-2-2 • Last 5: 1-2-4 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 1-2-4 (1.7 GPG)
Nottingham Forest: 56 total shots (season) • 28 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Nottingham Forest’s recent matches have averaged 1.7 total goals and Chelsea’s have averaged 2.2. Combined recent output 3.9 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Chelsea’s superior conversion rate and balanced possession game give them the tactical edge to control this contest. Nottingham Forest’s inefficiency in front of goal and defensive fragility at home only widen that gap. Expect Chelsea to assert dominance early and translate their sharper finishing into three points.
Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.
Chelsea are the right side on conversion edge and recent form.
Over/Under Prediction
Nottingham Forest have produced 1.7 GPG and Chelsea 2.2 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 3.9 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- 1xBet
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How does Parlamaz handicap Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
What do moneyline, Asian handicap, and total mean in EPL betting?
Moneyline: who wins the match. Asian handicap: a spread like -0.25 or -0.5 that can refund part of a draw. Total: combined goals, often 2.5. When Asian or DNB adds value, we say so.
Why do we show Last-5 GPG?
Last-5 GPG shows current scoring form. It updates faster than season numbers. We pair it with xG so one wild result does not swing the view.
