Prediction Details

MLB Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — NLDS Game 1 (Saturday, October 4 at 06:35 PM ET)

Introduction

Updated

LAD @ PHI
LAD +101
PHI -123
O/U 7.5
Market / Trend LAD PHI
Moneyline +101 -123
Total (O/U) 7.5
Run Line +1.5 (-210) -1.5 (175)
Last 5 RPG 6.4 3.4
Record 93–69 96–66
Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more

More MLB picks: Los Angeles Dodgers · Philadelphia Phillies

Series Context

Round: NLDS • Game: 1 • Series Score: 0–0

Home-Field: Philadelphia hosts at Citizens Bank Park. Pressure Meter: High leverage—opening blows often shape matchup choices in Games 2–3.

Philadelphia enters this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 surge across their last five games, while Los Angeles has ripped through opponents with a 5-0 stretch. The Phillies’ consistency at home combined with their 55-26 season mark in this park makes them the sharper side despite the Dodgers’ recent scoring burst. With both lineups producing above 9 runs per game combined over their last five, this contest projects high-scoring and sets up a confident MLB prediction favoring Philadelphia and the Over.

Game Time

Starts in 33h 14m

On tap at Saturday, October 4 at 06:35 PM ET inside Citizens Bank Park, short porches boost extra-base damage.

Odds & Spread Line

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: +101
  • Philadelphia Phillies: -123

Total: 7.5

  • Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: +1.5 (-210)
  • Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+175)

Postseason Levers That Matter

  • Top-order production: Traffic from the first three hitters sets early tone.
  • Extra-base hit threat: Gap power and timely homers decide tight October games.
  • Defense & baserunning: Clean innings and opportunistic steals convert thin edges.

Latest Team Records

Los Angeles Dodgers: 93-69 (Win %: 0.574)
Philadelphia Phillies: 96-66 (Win %: 0.593)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Evan Phillips (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Shohei Ohtani: 0.282 AVG, 55 HR, 102 RBI
  • Freddie Freeman: 0.295 AVG, 24 HR, 90 RBI
  • Andy Pages: 0.272 AVG, 27 HR, 86 RBI

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Kyle Schwarber: 0.24 AVG, 56 HR, 132 RBI
  • Bryce Harper: 0.261 AVG, 27 HR, 75 RBI
  • Trea Turner: 0.304 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have surged with a 5-0 record over their last five games, averaging 6.4 runs per contest, signaling a lineup in rhythm. Shohei Ohtani’s power production has carried the middle of the order, while Freddie Freeman continues to drive in runs consistently. Their 41-40 road record, however, shows they are far less dominant outside Los Angeles, which tempers confidence despite the recent streak.

Andy Pages has provided secondary power that deepens the lineup, but the Dodgers’ pitching staff has been inconsistent on the road, reflected in a 3.95 ERA overall. While the offense has masked some of those issues in recent weeks, Philadelphia Phillies’ ability to win at home makes this matchup less favorable for Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ recent surge is undeniable, but situational context points against them in this spot.

  • Batting Average: 0.253
  • Total Runs Scored: 825
  • Home Runs: 244
  • OBP: 0.327
  • SLG: 0.441
  • OPS: 0.768
  • ERA: 3.95
  • WHIP: 1.26

Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 54-29
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.7 RPG)


Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies hold a 96-66 record and have gone 4-1 in their last five games, averaging 3.4 runs per contest during that stretch. Kyle Schwarber’s league-leading home run total has been a constant offensive weapon, while Bryce Harper provides balance in the heart of the order. Their 55-26 home record drives home their ability to control games in this ballpark, making them a reliable side to back.

Trea Turner’s contact skills and speed continue to set the table effectively, supporting a lineup that thrives in front of its home crowd. Even with slightly lower recent scoring compared to Los Angeles, their ability to win close games at home has been decisive. The Phillies’ balance of power and situational hitting, paired with their elite home dominance, makes them the superior moneyline choice.

  • Batting Average: 0.258
  • Total Runs Scored: 778
  • Home Runs: 212
  • OBP: 0.328
  • SLG: 0.431
  • OPS: 0.759
  • ERA: 3.79
  • WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 55-26
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.5 RPG)


Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 4–2 (Last 6 games)

  • September 17, 2025: PHI 0 @ LAD 5
  • September 16, 2025: PHI 9 @ LAD 6
  • September 15, 2025: PHI 6 @ LAD 5
  • April 06, 2025: LAD 7 @ PHI 8
  • April 05, 2025: LAD 3 @ PHI 1
  • April 04, 2025: LAD 2 @ PHI 3

Over/Under Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies. Their 55-26 home record and recent form set a strong baseline in a high-leverage opener, and the lineup’s mix of top-order traffic and timely power plays cleanly in this park.

The data stack favors Philadelphia at current pricing.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.4 RPG and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6.4 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.

High-Leverage Edges

  • Top-order on-base consistency: Edge PHI
  • Extra-base hit rate in this park: Even
  • Defense & baserunning: Slight edge PHI

Bookmakers

Find these odds at: FanDuel, BetMGM, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars, BetUS, DraftKings.

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MLB Predictions FAQ

What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?

Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.

How does Parlamaz make Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB predictions?

We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.

How should I size my bets?

Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.

John Tamburino

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.