More EPL picks: Crystal Palace · Everton

Introduction

Both Crystal Palace and Everton have been averaging 1.7 goals per game in recent outings, creating a combined scoring profile that immediately points toward a high-tempo matchup. With the early-season sample still developing, these numbers provide a clear indication of offensive intent and defensive vulnerability on both sides. This matchup sets up as a test of who can seize momentum in a contest that leans toward goals and decisive attacking play.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, October 5 at 09:00 AM ET at Goodison Park.

Odds

• Crystal Palace: +180
• Everton: +160

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Crystal Palace: 0.0 (+110)
Handicap — Everton: 0.0 (-121)

Latest Team Records

Crystal Palace: 3-3-0 (Win %: 0.500 )
Everton: 2-2-2 (Win %: 0.333 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have been efficient in front of goal, scoring eight times from 56 attempts with a conversion rate north of 14%. Their ability to generate nearly a shot on target every other attempt shows sharpness in attack, while three clean sheets hint at defensive control when they dictate tempo. Still, their home record is less convincing compared to their away form, which makes this particular matchup more precarious.

Recent trends show Palace averaging 1.7 goals per game across both their last five and last ten matches, suggesting consistent offensive output. However, the reliance on structured buildup—over 37 passes per shot—can slow them against an Everton side that thrives on disrupting rhythm. The combination of discipline issues and a tendency to concede dangerous counters makes them vulnerable in a contest that leans toward high scoring.

• Goals: 8
• Total Shots: 56
• Shots on Target: 28
• Total Passes: 2095
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 14
• Hit Woodwork: 4
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 14.3%
• Passes per Shot: 37.41
• Discipline: Y:14 • R:0 • Off:8

Away Record: 2-1-0 • Home Record: 1-2-0 • Last 5: 3-3-0 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 3-3-0 (1.7 GPG)

Crystal Palace: 56 total shots (season) • 28 on target (season)

Everton

Everton’s home record is steady, with one win and two draws, showing resilience at Goodison Park. Their efficiency in front of goal stands out, converting over 15% of shots despite generating fewer attempts than Palace. That sharpness, paired with two clean sheets, signals a team capable of maximizing limited opportunities and protecting leads once established.

Across their last five and ten matches, Everton have matched Palace with 1.7 goals per game, but their style is more pragmatic, requiring nearly 50 passes per shot. That patience at home can frustrate opponents and open space late in matches, which aligns with their ability to matchup tight contests. With disciplined positioning and a slightly higher conversion rate, Everton enter this matchup with the edge to turn chances into points.

• Goals: 7
• Total Shots: 46
• Shots on Target: 18
• Total Passes: 2279
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 16
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 6
• Shot Conversion: 15.2%
• Passes per Shot: 49.54
• Discipline: Y:16 • R:0 • Off:6

Home Record: 1-2-0 • Away Record: 1-0-2 • Last 5: 2-2-2 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-2 (1.7 GPG)

Everton: 46 total shots (season) • 18 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Everton’s recent matches have averaged 1.7 total goals and Crystal Palace’s have averaged 1.7. Combined recent output 3.4 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Everton’s sharper finishing and steadier home form position them as the better value in this matchup. Their ability to turn fewer shots into meaningful goals, coupled with defensive discipline at Goodison Park, makes them the more reliable side to secure the result. Expect Everton to impose their efficiency and edge Palace in a decisive performance.

Draw safety: Med — minimal PPG gap; modest ML pricing on both sides.

Match dynamics favor Everton from kick-off to final whistle.

Over/Under Prediction

Everton have produced 1.7 GPG and Crystal Palace 1.7 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.4 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• MyBookie.ag
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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