More EPL picks: West Ham United · Arsenal

Introduction

Arsenal have opened the season with a sharp 1.5 goals per game pace while keeping three clean sheets, a clear signal of balance at both ends. West Ham United, by contrast, are averaging just 1.0 goals per game across their recent stretch, struggling to convert despite moderate shot volume. In this early-season sample, the contrast in form and efficiency frames Arsenal as the dominant side and establishes a balanced scoring expectation.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, October 4 at 10:00 AM ET at Emirates Stadium.

Odds

• West Ham United: +1100
• Arsenal: -500

Total: 2.5

Handicap — West Ham United: +2.0 (-101)
Handicap — Arsenal: -2.0 (-111)

Latest Team Records

West Ham United: 1-1-4 (Win %: 0.167 )
Arsenal: 4-1-1 (Win %: 0.667 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

West Ham United

West Ham United have labored in front of goal, converting just over 12% of their shots into six goals from 49 attempts. Despite generating 26 efforts on target, the lack of consistent finishing has kept their scoring average at just one per game. With only one clean sheet to show for their defensive work, the Hammers are vulnerable when facing a side that attacks with Arsenal’s efficiency.

Form trends reinforce the challenge: across their last five matches, West Ham are stuck at 1.0 goals per game, and their last ten show the same pattern. Their away record looks steadier at 1-1-1, but a winless home slate underlines inconsistency. Against an opponent that thrives on possession and sharp conversion rates, West Ham United’s trajectory points toward conceding more than they can produce.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 49
• Shots on Target: 26
• Total Passes: 2503
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 8
• Offsides: 7
• Shot Conversion: 12.2%
• Passes per Shot: 51.08
• Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:7

Away Record: 1-1-1 • Home Record: 0-0-3 • Last 5: 1-1-4 (1.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-4 (1.0 GPG)

West Ham United: 49 total shots (season) • 26 on target (season)

Arsenal

Arsenal have been far sharper in attack, scoring 12 goals from 58 shots with a striking 20.7% conversion rate. At home, their 2-1-0 record shows how effective they are at dictating play in front of their supporters, supported by nearly 2,819 passes that keep opponents under pressure. With three clean sheets already, their balance between defensive solidity and attacking precision sets them apart in this matchup.

Recent form underscores their superiority, as Arsenal’s last five and last ten games both average 1.5 goals per outing while conceding little. Their discipline has remained steady with only nine yellows and no red cards, allowing them to maintain rhythm and control. Facing a West Ham side that has yet to stabilize, Arsenal’s consistency at home makes them the clear favorite to extend their winning rhythm.

• Goals: 12
• Total Shots: 58
• Shots on Target: 24
• Total Passes: 2819
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 9
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 20.7%
• Passes per Shot: 48.60
• Discipline: Y:9 • R:0 • Off:8

Home Record: 2-1-0 • Away Record: 2-0-1 • Last 5: 4-1-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 4-1-1 (1.5 GPG)

Arsenal: 58 total shots (season) • 24 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Arsenal’s recent matches have averaged 1.5 total goals and West Ham United’s have averaged 1.0. Combined recent output 2.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Arsenal’s superior conversion rate, defensive stability, and home form create a decisive edge in this matchup. West Ham United’s lack of scoring consistency and fragile back line leave them outmatched against a side that thrives on control and efficiency. Arsenal are the clear pick to win outright.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Edge sits with Arsenal across form and goal threat.

Over/Under Prediction

Arsenal have produced 1.5 GPG and West Ham United 1.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 2.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Under 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• William Hill
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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