More EPL picks: Tottenham Hotspur · Leeds United

Introduction

Leeds United’s recent run of matches has averaged 2.5 goals per game, nearly doubling Tottenham Hotspur’s 1.5, signaling a clear attacking edge that can’t be ignored. Even in an early-season sample, these contrasting outputs underscore a matchup where Leeds’ offensive tempo is poised to matchup the balance. With both sides showing defensive gaps, the stage is set for a high-scoring contest where Leeds carries the sharper momentum.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, October 4 at 07:30 AM ET at Elland Road.

Odds

• Tottenham Hotspur: +140
• Leeds United: +185

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Tottenham Hotspur: -0.5 (+111)
Handicap — Leeds United: +0.5 (-122)

Latest Team Records

Tottenham Hotspur: 3-2-1 (Win %: 0.500 )
Leeds United: 2-2-2 (Win %: 0.333 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham have managed 11 goals from 55 total shots, showing a sharp 20% conversion rate that demonstrates efficiency in front of goal. However, the fact that it takes over 50 passes to generate each shot signals a slower buildup that can be disrupted by high-pressure teams like Leeds. While three clean sheets show defensive resilience, the attack has not consistently overwhelmed opponents in this sample.

Recent form at 1.5 goals per game across both the last five and last ten matches highlights a plateau in offensive output. Their away record is stronger than at home, but Elland Road’s intensity presents a different challenge. Tottenham Hotspur’s discipline record, with 12 yellows already, also hints at vulnerabilities that Leeds can exploit in transition.

• Goals: 11
• Total Shots: 55
• Shots on Target: 23
• Total Passes: 2774
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 12
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 10
• Shot Conversion: 20.0%
• Passes per Shot: 50.44
• Discipline: Y:12 • R:0 • Off:10

Away Record: 2-1-0 • Home Record: 1-1-1 • Last 5: 3-2-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 3-2-1 (1.5 GPG)

Tottenham Hotspur: 55 total shots (season) • 23 on target (season)

Leeds United

Leeds have scored 6 times from 43 shots, with a 14% conversion rate that underscores a direct, risk-taking style. Their passing volume is slightly lower than Tottenham Hotspur’s, but the ability to turn possession into forward momentum has been effective at Elland Road.

With 2.5 goals per game across both their last five and last ten matches, Leeds are operating at a higher offensive clip than their visitors. This offensive rhythm, combined with disciplined play (just 8 yellows), positions them to control tempo without self-destructing. The home crowd factor amplifies these strengths, making Leeds the side more likely to dictate play and secure the result.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 43
• Shots on Target: 20
• Total Passes: 2346
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 8
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 7
• Shot Conversion: 14.0%
• Passes per Shot: 54.56
• Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:7

Home Record: 1-2-0 • Away Record: 1-0-2 • Last 5: 2-2-2 (2.5 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-2 (2.5 GPG)

Leeds United: 43 total shots (season) • 20 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Leeds United’s recent matches have averaged 2.5 total goals and Tottenham Hotspur’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 4.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Leeds United’s higher attacking tempo, home field advantage, and superior recent scoring average align perfectly with the matchup. Tottenham Hotspur’s slower buildup and discipline concerns will leave them vulnerable to Leeds’ direct approach. Value sits firmly on Leeds to take this contest outright.

Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.

Numbers back Leeds United; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Leeds United have produced 2.5 GPG and Tottenham Hotspur 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 4.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• MyBookie.ag
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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