MLB Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sunday, September 28 at 03:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CIN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -139 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-166) | -1.5 (+132) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Record | 83–78 | 96–65 |
| Lines: BetRivers, Bovada, FanDuel, Fanatics | ||
More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds enter this matchup analysis having won 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 3.8 runs per contest in that stretch, while the Brewers have stumbled with just 1 win in their last 5 and only 2.4 runs per game. This contrast in form creates a decisive betting edge, as Cincinnati Reds’ lineup has been steadier in run production while Milwaukee Brewers’ bats have cooled. With recent head-to-head results also tilting toward Cincinnati, this MLB prediction strongly favors the Reds to continue their surge while the scoring profile points toward a lower total.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Sunday, September 28 at 03:10 PM ET at American Family Field, roofed conditions stabilize carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cincinnati Reds: +110
- Milwaukee Brewers: -139
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-166)
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+132)
Latest Team Records
Cincinnati Reds: 83-78 (Win %: 0.516)
Milwaukee Brewers: 96-65 (Win %: 0.596)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.264 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
- Spencer Steer: 0.239 AVG, 21 HR, 75 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.317 AVG, 10 HR, 44 RBI
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.265 AVG, 29 HR, 102 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.287 AVG, 18 HR, 79 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.269 AVG, 20 HR, 77 RBI
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ 8-2 mark over their last 10 games reflects a team playing with confidence and consistency, and their 3-2 record in the last 5 shows they are still generating runs at a steady clip. On the road, their 38-42 record emphasizes some season-long inconsistency, but recent results suggest an uptick in performance away from home. Elly De La Cruz’s production has been a stabilizing factor, ensuring the Reds maintain pressure even in tighter scoring games.
Spencer Steer’s run production has been timely during this stretch, complementing Miguel Andujar’s ability to deliver contact hitting that sustains innings. The Reds’ 3.4 RPG across the last 5 highlights a functional offense that doesn’t need explosive totals to secure wins when paired with reliable pitching. With their bullpen posting a 3.86 ERA, Cincinnati is well-positioned to keep games under control and capitalize on Milwaukee Brewers’ recent offensive struggles.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 707
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.391
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 38-42 • Home Record: 45-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (3.8 RPG)
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ 1-4 record in their last 5 games and just 2.4 RPG during that span reflect an offense trending downward at the worst possible time. Even with Christian Yelich anchoring their lineup, the lack of recent consistency has left Milwaukee vulnerable in close contests. Their home record of 51-29 shows overall strength, but current form signals a team struggling to translate that into wins.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have delivered across the season, yet their recent output hasn’t been enough to offset the team’s broader slump. With only 4 wins in the last 10 games, Milwaukee Brewers’ attack lacks the rhythm to exploit Cincinnati Reds’ pitching staff. The Brewers’ 3.61 ERA keeps games within reach, but without offensive support, that advantage is being wasted.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 798
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.736
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 45-36 • Home Record: 51-29
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 27, 2025: CIN 7 @ MIL 4
- September 26, 2025: CIN 3 @ MIL 1
- August 17, 2025: MIL 2 @ CIN 3
- August 16, 2025: MIL 6 @ CIN 5
- August 15, 2025: MIL 10 @ CIN 8
- June 04, 2025: MIL 9 @ CIN 1
- June 03, 2025: MIL 2 @ CIN 4
- June 02, 2025: MIL 3 @ CIN 2
Over/Under Trends
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 6.1 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.2 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Cincinnati Reds’ 8-2 surge across their last 10 games, combined with Milwaukee Brewers’ 1-4 skid and lack of offensive support, tilts this matchup decisively toward the Reds. With De La Cruz and Steer driving timely production and recent head-to-head wins already secured in Milwaukee, Cincinnati has the sharper edge to extend its form.
We’re backing the Cincinnati Reds at +110 as the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Milwaukee Brewers are at 2.4 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds at 3.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 5.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, Fanatics, Bovada, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
