MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (Sunday, September 28 at 03:20 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +140 | -164 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-148) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 8.2 |
| Record | 78–83 | 91–70 |
| Lines: BetOnline.ag, Caesars, Fanatics, LowVig.ag +1 more | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Chicago Cubs
Chicago has averaged 8.2 runs per game across its last five, but this MLB prediction highlights a Cardinals team that has quietly steadied at 4.4 runs per game in the same stretch. While the Cubs’ recent scoring looks explosive, their 4–6 mark across the last 10 shows vulnerability, particularly against divisional opponents familiar with their tendencies. St. Louis enters with a balanced offensive core that can punish lapses, and the data points toward them being undervalued against a Cubs side prone to volatility.
Game Time
Game time: Sunday, September 28 at 03:20 PM ET inside Wrigley Field, totals move with the breeze.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +140
- Chicago Cubs: -164
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-148)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+125)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 78-83 (Win %: 0.484)
Chicago Cubs: 91-70 (Win %: 0.565)
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals are missing Willson Contreras (Shoulder), listed as 10-Day-IL; Zack Thompson (Lat), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Chicago Cubs are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.292 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.287 AVG, 19 HR, 66 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.244 AVG, 30 HR, 101 RBI
- Michael Busch: 0.257 AVG, 32 HR, 86 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.245 AVG, 30 HR, 93 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals sit at 78–83 overall, but their last 10 games at 5–5 with 4.1 runs per game show a lineup finding balance late in the season. Their last five at 2–3 with 4.4 runs per game indicate they are generating enough offense to stay competitive, especially with Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera delivering steady production. On the road they have struggled at 34–46, yet that lower baseline creates value when their offense clicks against familiar divisional pitching.
St. Louis has shown resilience despite inconsistency, and the numbers suggest they are positioned to capitalize on a Cubs side that has leaked runs recently. Ivan Herrera’s ability to sustain rallies combined with Burleson’s timely hitting keeps them dangerous in late-game spots. Even with road challenges, the Cardinals’ current scoring pace is enough to make them the sharper betting angle against a Cubs team that has dropped six of its last 10.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 686
- Home Runs: 146
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.379
- OPS: 0.694
- ERA: 4.28
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-46 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.1 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 91–70 record reflects strong season-long results, but their 4–6 mark over the last 10 shows inconsistency when it matters most. Their last five games at 3–2 with 8.2 runs per game highlight offensive firepower, yet defensive lapses have left them vulnerable. Seiya Suzuki’s run production remains critical, but the recent trend shows that scoring alone hasn’t translated to consistent wins.
At home, the Cubs have been formidable with a 49–31 record, but their recent form suggests regression against opponents who can extend innings. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong drive the power numbers, though the team’s volatile results make them less reliable from a betting standpoint. When facing a Cardinals squad with balanced hitting, Chicago Cubs’ heavy reliance on high-scoring outputs makes them a riskier side.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 784
- Home Runs: 218
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 49-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (8.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago Cubs lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 27, 2025: STL 3 @ CHC 7
- September 26, 2025: STL 1 @ CHC 12
- August 10, 2025: CHC 2 @ STL 3
- August 09, 2025: CHC 9 @ STL 1
- August 08, 2025: CHC 0 @ STL 5
- July 06, 2025: STL 0 @ CHC 11
- July 05, 2025: STL 8 @ CHC 6
- July 04, 2025: STL 3 @ CHC 11
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ steadier recent form paired with balanced run production makes them a sharper side than the Cubs, whose volatility has cost them six of their last 10. With Burleson and Herrera providing dependable offense and the Cubs struggling to convert scoring into consistent wins, the betting edge lies with St. Louis to take control of this matchup.
We rate the St. Louis Cardinals at +140 as the right side at current form.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Chicago Cubs at 8.2 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 4.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 12.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
These MLB lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How does Parlamaz make St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
