Introduction

More MLB picks: Arizona Diamondbacks · San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has averaged 4.4 runs per game across its last five contests, keeping pace with San Diego Padres’ 4.6 mark, a scoring rhythm that sets up a sharp MLB prediction on the total. The Diamondbacks’ lineup features multiple high-impact bats that have consistently driven production even during a 2-3 stretch, while San Diego has leaned on its home consistency. With both sides showing enough firepower to push games past the number, the betting edge points toward Arizona Diamondbacks’ value on the moneyline and a confident lean to the Over.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 27 at 08:40 PM ET inside Petco Park, conservative scoring is typical.

Odds & Spread Line

• Arizona Diamondbacks: +121
• San Diego Padres: -133

Total: 7.5

• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-182)
• Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+155)

Latest Team Records

Arizona Diamondbacks: 80-79 (Win %: 0.503)
San Diego Padres: 87-72 (Win %: 0.547)

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Tyler Locklear (Elbow), listed as 10-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.289 AVG, 19 HR, 98 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.26 AVG, 31 HR, 84 RBI
• Ketel Marte: 0.283 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI

San Diego Padres

• Manny Machado: 0.273 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
• Ramon Laureano: 0.281 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
• Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.267 AVG, 23 HR, 66 RBI

Team Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks hold an 80-79 record and have split their last 10 games at 5-5, showing balanced form despite a 2-3 mark in their last five. This group continues to generate steady offense with 4.4 runs per game in that span, driven by consistent contributions from Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll. Their road record of 37-42 signals challenges away from home, but the offense has provided enough lift to keep them competitive in high-leverage matchups.

Ketel Marte’s timely production adds another layer of scoring reliability, giving Arizona three dangerous bats capable of carrying momentum. Even with uneven recent results, their ability to average above four runs per outing places them in a strong betting position against a Padres team that thrives at home. With recent totals consistently clearing the posted number, Arizona Diamondbacks’ scoring depth positions them as a live underdog worth backing.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 786
• Home Runs: 212
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.433
• OPS: 0.758
• ERA: 4.44
• WHIP: 1.32

Away Record: 37-42 • Home Record: 43-38
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.3 RPG)

San Diego Padres

San Diego enters with an 87-72 record and has surged to a 4-1 mark over its last five games, averaging 4.6 runs per contest. Manny Machado’s run production has been central to that push, while Ramon Laureano has added balance to the lineup. Their 50-29 home record lays bare why they are consistently tough to beat at Petco Park.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has chipped in with power across recent series, keeping the Padres’ offense steady even when opponents apply pressure. However, despite their recent form, San Diego has been vulnerable to teams with multiple power bats, and Arizona fits that profile. With both sides producing around nine combined runs per game, the Padres’ strong home play still faces resistance from a Diamondbacks lineup that matches their scoring pace.

• Batting Average: 0.252
• Total Runs Scored: 685
• Home Runs: 148
• OBP: 0.321
• SLG: 0.388
• OPS: 0.709
• ERA: 3.64
• WHIP: 1.21

Away Record: 38-43 • Home Record: 50-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

San Diego Padres lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)

• September 26, 2025: ARI 4 @ SD 7
• August 06, 2025: SD 3 @ ARI 2
• August 05, 2025: SD 10 @ ARI 5
• August 04, 2025: SD 2 @ ARI 6
• July 10, 2025: ARI 3 @ SD 4
• July 09, 2025: ARI 8 @ SD 2
• July 08, 2025: ARI 0 @ SD 1
• July 07, 2025: ARI 6 @ SD 3

Over/Under Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Diamondbacks’ ability to sustain 4.3 runs per game across their last 10 contests, combined with their proven scoring depth from Perdomo, Carroll, and Marte, makes them the sharper side despite San Diego Padres’ home success. Their recent offensive consistency neutralizes the Padres’ edge at Petco Park and sets up Arizona as the more valuable moneyline selection.

Value-side alert: the Arizona Diamondbacks at +121 profile as the play.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the San Diego Padres at 4.6 RPG and the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.4, giving context for the number.

With both clubs averaging 9.0 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Over 7.5 outcome.

Bookmakers

Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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