MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Saturday, September 27 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +109 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (130) | +1.5 (-155) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 82–78 | 78–82 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Caesars +5 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Miami Marlins
The Mets enter this matchup analysis with a 2-3 mark over their last five, averaging 4.8 runs per game, while the Marlins have produced 3.4 per game across the same stretch. That recent output points toward a lower-scoring contest, and it sets the stage for a sharp MLB prediction that favors New York Mets’ offensive ceiling against Miami Marlins’ inconsistent production. With both clubs hovering near .500, the Mets’ superior season-long scoring profile gives them the decisive edge heading into this meeting.
Game Time
The action begins at Saturday, September 27 at 04:10 PM ET inside pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park with controlled scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -120
- Miami Marlins: +109
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+130)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-155)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 82-78 (Win %: 0.512)
Miami Marlins: 78-82 (Win %: 0.487)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.271 AVG, 37 HR, 123 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.265 AVG, 43 HR, 105 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 30 HR, 84 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.248 AVG, 15 HR, 77 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.231 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 82-78 record emphasizes a team that has maintained a winning rhythm throughout the season, even if their most recent five games ended at 2-3. The offense has been steady enough to average 5.7 runs across the last 10, which highlights their ability to put pressure on opposing pitchers. Pete Alonso’s power presence and Francisco Lindor’s balanced hitting have been central to keeping this lineup productive despite uneven short-term results.
New York Mets’ road struggles at 33-46 are evident, yet they still bring more consistent scoring than Miami. Juan Soto provides another layer of reliability in the middle of the order, ensuring opposing pitchers cannot simply pitch around Alonso. With their offensive depth and a stronger season-long scoring profile, the Mets are positioned to capitalize on Miami Marlins’ inconsistency and secure the upper hand.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 759
- Home Runs: 222
- OBP: 0.326
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 4.04
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 33-46 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.7 RPG)
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins’ 78-82 record reflects a team that has struggled to consistently stay above water, despite a recent 3-2 stretch in their last five games. Their home record of 37-42 shows a lack of dominance in their own park, which weakens their betting outlook against a Mets offense with greater firepower. Kyle Stowers has been the most reliable bat, but his production alone has not translated into sustained scoring pressure.
The Marlins’ 8-2 mark over the last 10 suggests a short-term uptick, yet their 3.4 runs per game in the last five exposes how fragile their offense still is. Otto Lopez and Agustin Ramirez have contributed at times, but the overall lineup lacks the punch to consistently threaten stronger opponents. Against a Mets team with deeper offensive threats, Miami Marlins’ inability to maximize home-field advantage leaves them vulnerable to being outpaced.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 699
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.394
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 4.64
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 37-42
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Miami Marlins lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 26, 2025: NYM 2 @ MIA 6
- August 31, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 1
- August 30, 2025: MIA 11 @ NYM 8
- August 29, 2025: MIA 9 @ NYM 19
- August 28, 2025: MIA 7 @ NYM 4
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
- April 07, 2025: MIA 0 @ NYM 2
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.0 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 9.4 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ deeper lineup balance, stronger season-long scoring rate, and ability to generate runs even in neutral form give them the clear edge over Miami. Despite the Marlins’ recent 8-2 stretch, their low-scoring output in the last five emphasizes why New York Mets’ offensive consistency and key bats will dictate the outcome.
This sets up cleanly for the New York Mets to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Miami Marlins have produced 3.4 RPG and the New York Mets 4.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 27, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
