MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (Friday, September 26 at 02:20 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | STL | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +140 | -169 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-135) | -1.5 (115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Record | 78–81 | 89–69 |
| Lines: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Chicago Cubs
The Cubs enter this matchup analysis with a stronger overall record and a home mark of 47-31, positioning them as the more reliable betting side against the Cardinals. St. Louis has gone just 34-44 away from home, and their offense has produced 5.0 runs per game across the last five, matching Chicago Cubs’ recent output but without the same stability. With both lineups trending toward higher-scoring contests, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Cubs’ moneyline and the Over on the total.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Friday, September 26 at 02:20 PM ET inside Wrigley Field, totals move with the breeze.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +140
- Chicago Cubs: -169
Total: 9
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-135)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+115)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 78-81 (Win %: 0.491)
Chicago Cubs: 89-69 (Win %: 0.563)
Injury Report
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Chicago Cubs are missing Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.293 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.286 AVG, 19 HR, 66 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Michael Busch: 0.256 AVG, 31 HR, 84 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.244 AVG, 29 HR, 91 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.242 AVG, 27 HR, 93 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals sit below .500 overall and have struggled to find consistency away from home, reflected in a 34-44 road record. Their last 5 games show a 3-2 mark with 5.0 runs per game, but the broader 6-4 stretch indicates only moderate stability. Alec Burleson has been one of the steadier bats, yet the team’s inconsistent offense on the road prevents them from sustaining pressure against top-tier opponents.
Ivan Herrera has chipped in steady production, while Willson Contreras has supplied power, but neither has been able to elevate the group into a dominant offense. The club’s pitching staff remains serviceable yet vulnerable, which is problematic against a Cubs lineup that generates runs in volume. With road inefficiency and a middling recent record, the Cardinals face an uphill climb in this contest.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 685
- Home Runs: 146
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.38
- OPS: 0.696
- ERA: 4.23
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-44 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.6 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been more reliable overall at 89-69 and particularly strong at Wrigley Field with a 47-31 home record. While they are just 1-4 in their last 5, the offense has still delivered 5.0 runs per game, showing that production is not the issue. Michael Busch has been a central run producer, keeping the lineup dangerous even when wins have been harder to come by.
Pete Crow-Armstrong adds power to the middle of the order, and Seiya Suzuki’s run production has been highly impactful across the season. Despite recent losses, the Cubs’ ability to score consistently at home positions them to rebound quickly. Their depth and proven scoring ability give them the edge in this matchup, especially with the Cardinals’ road struggles.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 767
- Home Runs: 211
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.81
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 47-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago Cubs lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 10, 2025: CHC 2 @ STL 3
- August 09, 2025: CHC 9 @ STL 1
- August 08, 2025: CHC 0 @ STL 5
- July 06, 2025: STL 0 @ CHC 11
- July 05, 2025: STL 8 @ CHC 6
- July 04, 2025: STL 3 @ CHC 11
- June 26, 2025: CHC 3 @ STL 0
- June 25, 2025: CHC 8 @ STL 0
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.7 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ superior home record, combined with consistent run production from Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki, makes them the sharper moneyline side. Their proven ability to generate offense at Wrigley Field, along with a favorable head-to-head edge, points to why Chicago is positioned to take control here.
We’re backing the Chicago Cubs to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Chicago Cubs are at 5.0 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 5.0 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 26, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How does Parlamaz make St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
